UFC Fight Night 127 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC Fight Night 127 takes place Saturday, March 17 at The O2 Arena in London, England. The event is headlined by a five-round heavyweight bout between former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum and former Bellator heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov. Here are the opening odds from the offshore sportsbooks:

UFC Fight Night 127 Opening Odds:

Fabricio Werdum -245
Alexander Volkov +175

Jimi Manuwa -210
Jan Blachowicz +160

Tom Duquesnoy -350
Terrion Ware +250

Leon Edwards -300
Peter Sobotta +220

John Phillips -160
Charles Byrd +120

Danny Roberts -230
Oliver Enkamp +170

Brad Scott -140
Jack Marshman +100

Hakeem Dawodu -280
Danny Henry +200

Magomed Ankalaev -410
Paul Craig +290

Stevie Ray -175
Kajan Johnson +135

Dmitry Sosnovskiy -260
Mark Godbeer +180

Nasrat Haqparast -120
Nad Narimani -120

My initial reactions to the UFC Fight Night 127 opening odds are as follows:

– My initial thoughts are that while I favor Tom Duquesnoy, I think the odds are a bit too high for his fight against Terrion Ware. While Duquesnoy was a big-time prospect on the way up, I haven’t been too impressed with him in his first two fights, a hard-fought TKO win over Patrick Williams and a decision loss to Cody Stamann. Don’t get me wrong, Ware hasn’t exactly lit up the world either and is 0-2 with decision losses to Stamann and Sean O’Malley. But Ware has at least been competitive in his fights, and he’s not the can some think he is, so be careful with this one.

– For dogs, I’m looking at Oliver Enkamp, who fights Danny Roberts on the prelims. Enkamp and Roberts are both coming off of losses to the same fighter in Nordine Taleb, but at least Enkamp was able to survive the full 15 minutes while Roberts was knocked out. I don’t like how Roberts has been brutally knocked out a couple times in the UFC and I think he’s someone to look to fade. I’m not sure how much potential Enkamp has, but I think he can win this fight.

– For whatever reason, Jack Marshman opened as a dog against Brad Scott. But bettors are not dumb, and they’ve already hammered the line on Marshman, who is now a three-to-one favorite. I would have been all over Marshman at that opening price, obviously, though at the current odds it might not be worth betting on. But wow, the fact he opened as a dog just shows you need to keep your eyes on the opening lines because you might get a bargain now and then.

– I personally would peg Stevie Ray as a much bigger favorite over Kajan Johnson. I know Johnson knocked out Adriano Martins in his last fight, but I still feel like that was kind of flukey. And yes, I know Ray was knocked out by Paul Felder in his last outing, but I still think he’s a really good fighter, and I like these cheap odds on him to get the win.

– I expected Dmitry Sosnovskiy to be favored over Mark Godbeer, but I also feel like there’s some upset potential here for Godbeer. The reason? Sosnovskiy hasn’t fought in three years, and fighters coming off that long of a layoff should almost always be faded. At these odds, there’s dog value on Godbeer in my opinion.

Written by Adam Martin.

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