UFC 222 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC 222 takes place this Saturday night (March 3, 2018) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event is headlined by a women’s featherweight title fight between champion Cristian Justine and challenger Yana Kunitskaya. Here are the opening odds from the offshore sportsbooks:

UFC 222 Opening Odds:

Cristine Justino -1500
Yana Kunitskaya +700

Frankie Edgar -155
Brian Ortega +115

Sean O’Malley -260
Andre Soukamthath +180

Stefan Struve -380
Andre Arlovski +290

Ketlen Vieira -180
Cat Zingano +140

Mackenzie Dern -475
Ashley Yoder +325

John Dodson -180
Pedro Munhoz +140

Beneil Dariush -350
Alexander Hernandez +250

Hector Lombard -120
CB Dollaway -120

Zak Ottow -245
Mike Pyle +175

Cody Stamann -120
Bryan Caraway -120

Jordan Johnson -275
Adam Milstead +195

My initial reactions to the UFC 222 opening odds are as follows:

  • I don’t think you can go too high on Cristiane Justino. I expect her to absolutely demolish Yana Kunitskaya in the first round in what is an egregious mismatch. Cyborg is just a far superior fighter in every aspect of the game, not to mention the much bigger fighter. She could have easily opened at -2500 and no one would have blinked an eye. The under may be the way to go here, though.

  • Though I favor Stefan Struve to beat Andre Arlovski, the odds seem kind of wide for a heavyweight fight. As bad as Arlovski’s chin is these days, Struve’s chin is equally bad. I would not be surprised to see either guy land a huge punch on one another. As a straight pick Struve is probably the correct side here but as far as these odds go, this fight reminds me of the odds when Arlovski fought Travis Browne, and we all know what happened there.

  • I’m really digging CB Dollaway as the underdog against Hector Lombard. I think Lombard is completely done at this point while Dollaway is still somewhat serviceable. Just look at Lombard’s recent record, the number of KO losses he’s suffered lately, his age, and his PED bust. He was good a long time ago but he’s far the fighter he once was back in Bellator. Dollaway isn’t a sexy name and I do expect more money to come in on Lombard’s side, but I favor Dollaway to win here and would like him at dog money.

  • I’m digging Cody Stamann in this fight against Bryan Caraway. Yes, Caraway is the veteran with more experience, and he won four of five fights before taking a long layoff, but he is very inactive these days and hasn’t fought in almost two years. I always pick against guys coming off excessive layoffs and I just don’t know how motivated to fight Caraway is anymore. Stamann has looked great in the UFC and I think as the younger fighter with more upside he’s going to come through with a big win here.

  • I’m a big fan of Jordan Johnson and I really like him to take out Adam Milstead, who is making his light heavyweight debut after a failed stint at heavyweight. Milstead is coming off of a devastating knee injury against Curtis Blaydes and I almost always bet against fighter coming off of long injury layoffs. Not to mention Jordan is insanely talented and undefeated so far in the UFC. I think he could easily be a -400 favorite here, and I fully expect him to keep his undefeated record.

Written by Adam Martin.

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