Big Marley’s UFC on FOX 28 Betting Preview

May 8, 2016; Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands; during UFC Fight Night at Ahoy Rotterdam. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

This Saturday we have a free 12-fight Fox card in Orlando, Florida. Originally, I thought I might sit this card out from a betting standpoint but I ended up betting two underdogs and hoping I can get at least one of them to hit.

My first bet of the card is on Josh Emmett (+150) in the main event over Jeremy Stephens. As I type this article the current line on Emmett is +145 and I think there is still value in the line as long as it doesn’t drop closer to PK. I think Emmett has more ways to win this fight and I think he will threaten with takedowns early in the fight to have Stephens guessing what is next throughout the 25 minute fight. Emmett won’t have to worry about Stephens taking him down so he can focus his defense around Stephens strengths which is his striking and KO power. Stephens can knock out anybody in the division, but I think Emmett will be able to avoid the power and win a decision or even with a KO of his own.

1st Play = 2u on Josh Emmett +150

I thought Emmett would be my only play of the night but Maryna Moroz opened as a -140 and the line flipped where she is now sitting as the +150 underdog. I had to take a shot at the line because I do think there is value there as I think this fight should be lined as a PK. Moroz is the younger fighter here and I think the one who is more likely to show improvement each fight at this point in their careers. I think the striking is pretty even between the two and if the fight does end up hitting the ground the advantage goes to Moroz.  If this line was to go back to an even line then I don’t think it would be worth betting any longer but as long as it is +140 or better I see value there.

2nd play = 2u on Maryna Moroz +140

As long as I can get one of these two underdog plays to hit, it will be a profitable night and that is the overall goal.  Hopefully next card I will find some more plays I like but sticking with just two dogs for this card and hoping for some fun fights. Good luck to everyone whether you are tailing my picks or not.


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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