UFC on FOX 28: Stephens vs. Emmett
Date: February 24
Arena: Bamway Center
City: Orlando, FL
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to Orlando, FL for the third time in promotional history with UFC on FOX 28: Stephens vs. Emmett. The 13 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 4:15 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX at 6 p.m., and the main card will be underway on the same channel at 8 p.m. Here are my plays…
Welterweight bout: Mike Perry (-365) vs. Max Griffin (+305)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Contrary to popular opinion, I think this rock ‘em, sock ‘em scrap has a decent chance of hitting the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Despite knowing that both fighters will likely be looking to take each other’s heads off, I think they are capable of eating each other’s shots. It is more likely that this fight will result in a finish, but a decision would not surprise me at all. I think the odds for this matchup are completely lopsided. I feel Griffin holds value at the current price and is worth a play. I expect this to be a closely contested fight on the feet, and while I do lean towards Perry for my official pick, I do believe Griffin is barking. Live Dog Alert. He certainly isn’t my favorite underdog on the card but this line is too good to completely pass on, so I like a small play here.
Gabe’s Call: Perry by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Griffin (+305) 1.5u to win 4.57u Women’s Strawweight bout: Angela Hill (-160) vs. Maryna Moroz (+140)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a close fight, however, I think Moroz should be a slight -130 betting favorite, so I see value in her current offering price of +140. Contrary to popular opinion, I think she is capable of getting the better of Hill on the feet. I don’t think she necessarily needs takedowns to win. I predict Hill will outstrike Moroz in the first round, but slows down in the second, where Moroz picks it up, lands more significant strikes and secures a couple of takedowns to secure the rounds and ultimately victory on the judges’ socrecards, potentially scoring a submission finish along the way.
Gabe’s Call: Moroz by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Moroz (+140) 2u to win 2.8
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