Free UFC 162 Picks: Gabriel Gonzaga (-240) vs. Dave Herman (+200)

Gabriel Gonzaga UFC 162 MGM Grand Gardena Arena, Las Vegas, NV Saturday, July 6, 2013 Heavyweight bout: Gabriel Gonzaga (-240) vs. Dave Herman (+200) Fight Breakdown: One of the featured FX preliminary bouts at UFC 162 is a heavyweight matchup between Gabriel Gonzaga and Dave Herman. Gonzaga is currently a -240 favorite (bet $240 to win $100), while Herman is a +200 underdog (bet $100 to win $200) at Several Bookmakers. Gonzaga (14-7) is one of the longest-tenured heavyweights in the UFC as he’s fought for the promotion since all the way back in 2005. The 34-year-old is extremely good on the ground, as evidenced by his nine career submissions, and he’s also got knockout power as evidenced by his five T/KO wins. However, his chin is a huge question mark as he’s been finished six times in his career by strikes, including a brutal KO loss to Travis Browne in his last outing. Against Herman, look for Gonzaga to try and take this fight to the ground and get the submission because if he stands up with “Pee-Wee,” I’m betting he goes to sleep. Herman (21-5) recently completed a suspension for marijuana and is in a must-win situation against Gonzaga here as he’s lost three fights in a row. The only reason he’s getting another fight is because the 28-year-old is relatively fun to watch and because he has all the physical tools necessary to be a contender in the heavyweight division. However, his chin is a question mark and obviously coming off a drug suspension you have to question where his head is at. Against Gonzaga look for Herman to try and keep the fight standing and use powerful hands to crack Gonzaga’s chin and get the big upset win. Fight Prediction: This is a heavyweight fight between two very powerful men and so I don’t see this fight going the distance and it might just come down to who lands first. Since I expect Herman to stuff Gonzaga’s takedowns and for this fight to take place on the feet, someone is for sure getting knocked out here and I think it’s going to be the older and slow Gonzaga, as I believe Herman can use his length and range to keep Gonzaga away and land a devastating blow that puts his opponent away. Adam’s Pick: Herman via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I like Herman as the underdog here and at +200 I definitely recommend a play on him. You can’t go too crazy, since this is “Pee-Wee” after all, but in a heavyweight fight that is essentially a coin-flip you have to go with the plus money and so I think Herman is the right side here for a bet.

Written by Adam Martin.

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