Free UFC 162 Picks: Frankie Edgar (-600) vs. Charles Oliveira (+450)

Frankie Edgar UFC 162 MGM Grand Gardena Arena, Las Vegas, NV Saturday, July 6, 2013 Featherweight bout: Frankie Edgar (-600) vs. Charles Oliveira (+450) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event of UFC 162 is a featherweight bout between former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar and youngster Charles Oliveira. Edgar is a heavy -600 favorite (bet $600 to win $100), while the comeback on Oliveira sits at +450 (bet $100 to win $450) at Several Bookmakers. Edgar (15-4-1) is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world but he’s lost three-straight fights and needs a victory badly this weekend to get back on track. The 31-year-old has been said to be on a decline by some because of the three losses, but keep in mind those came against Jose Aldo and Benson Henderson, two of the best in the world — not to mention all three losses were very controversial decisions. Against Oliveira look for Edgar to be extremely motivated to get a finish and continue his march towards another title shot, and I think he’s going to be able to do just that against a fighter with a questionable chin like Oliveira. Oliveira (16-3, 1 NC) is one of the most talented BJJ fighters in the lightweight division, a fighter who is capable of creating submissions out of seemingly nothing. However, the 23-year-old is also on a bit of a skid as he’s only 2-3, 1 NC over his last six fights, and he’s been knocked out multiple times over that stretch. Although Oliveira is a very big fighter for his weight class and although his ground game is top notch, his wrestling isn’t that great and his chin is especially worrisome so against a top-flight wrestling with knockout power like Edgar, that spells trouble. Fight Prediction: Since Oliveira is primarily a BJJ fighter and since Edgar is one of the best fighters out there at stuffing takedowns, I don’t see how Oliveira gets this fight to the ground and in the stand there’s no question that Edgar holds a massive advantage. Look for Edgar to keep the fight on the feet, pick Oliveira apart, and finally land a devastating blow that makes Oliveira cover up and the ref stop the fight. Adam’s Pick: Edgar via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I really like Edgar in this fight, and I like him to finish Oliveira somewhere in the first two rounds, so feel free to add the Edgar moneyline to your parlays. As far as a prop goes, I actually prefer recommending the UNDER 2.5 rounds prop, because I think there is a finish in this match and the line is at +105 right now, which is still a good price for a stoppage. And plus it gives you added protection just in case Oliveira does pull off the upset.

Written by Adam Martin.

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