TUF 25 Finale: Johnson vs. Gaethje
Date: July 7, 2017
Arena: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, NV
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back home in Las Vegas, NV for International Fight Week with The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale: Johnson vs. Gaethje slated for this Friday (July 7, 2017). The 12-fight card will get underway with prelims on UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. (ET), which continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7 p.m. The main card will start on the same channel at 9 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are available at Several Bookmakers.
Here is my two-way parlay for the TUF 25 Finale…
Middleweight bout: Elias Theodorou (-135) vs. Brad Tavares (+115)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with the betting line in that this is a very close fight. At the current odds, I would say it is a dog or pass situation, as I think Tavares should be a slight -130 favorite here, with the return on Theodorou being +110. If I had to make a play here, it would definitely be on the dog. That said, I think the real value for this fight is in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds, despite it being juicy at -270. I think that in victory each fighter wins this bout on the judges’ scorecards 85 percent of the time.
Gabe’s Call: Tavares by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Women’s Strawweight bout: Tecia Torres (-335) vs. Juliana Lima (+275)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Both Torres and Lima have looked excellent in recent bouts, and they intend to keep the fire going in this Puerto Rican versus Brazilian match-up at 115 pounds. I do favor Torres in this matchup, however, I don’t agree with her current asking price of -335. At the current odds, I think this is definitely a dog or pass situation in which I see some value with the dog. I cannot fault anybody for playing Lima here, but for me personally, I am going to opt to pass on a straight play on her and instead take the heavily juiced Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -320. Because regardless of who gets her hand raised, I think both women’s strawweights are to win this fight on the judges’ scorecards much more often than not. This is a fight that could either be a boring, three-round technical striking battle, or an entertaining scrap where both ladies have their moments. I also would not be surprised to see Torres find success with her takedowns. While Lima is solid with her own ground game and top control, I think Torres is tougher to take down than she is.
Gabe’s Call: Torres by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Theodorou/Tavares Over 2.5 rounds (-270) and Torres/Lima Over 2.5 rounds (-320) at -126