Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC Fight Night 112 as Americans Michael Chiesa and Kevin square off in a Top 15 lightweight clash.
Michael Chiesa (Record: 14-2, +120 Underdog, Power Ranking: B-)
The 29-year-old Sik Jitsu fighter enters his first UFC main event on the back of a three-fight winning streak. Chiesa comes into this bout off the biggest win of his career, a submission victory over fellow Top 15 lightweight Beneil Dariush.
Over the past couple of years, Chiesa has made strides to become a better all-around fighter, however, he’s still mainly a submission grappler. His length for the weight class has always caused issues for his opponents. He does a good job securing trip takedowns and working in control on the group. He’s excellent on the ground at securing body locks and working for chokes. Of his 14 career wins, 10 have come by some type of choke. He’s shown that his striking is serviceable, but ultimately he’s not going to beat a good opponent on the feet. His success is dependent on takedowns and working submissions on the ground. Training with the likes of Team Alpha Male has enhanced his ability to secure takedowns. In regard to intangibles, Chiesa knows the type of fighter he is and understands what he needs to do to win. His fight IQ is towards the top of the division.
Kevin Lee (Record: 15-2, -140 Favorite, Power Ranking: B-)
The 24-year-old Grand Rapids, Michigan born “Motown Phenom” is one of the fastest rising fighters in the lightweight division. Lee is riding a four-fight winning streak with three straight stoppage victories. In his last bout, Lee went to Brazil and submitted Brazilian Francisco Trinaldo in the second round.
Lee has quickly become one of the best prospects in the lightweight division. He has a decent stand-up game, landing 40 percent of his significant strikes at 3.55 strikes per minute. However, where he has really risen his game is his wrestling. Lee has developed into an excellent wrestler. He’s just one fight removed from facing talented Russian Magomed Mustafaev. Lee completely dominated the grappling exchanges, taking his opponent to the mat seven times in that bout, and he was able to earn a submission win. Overall, Lee has earned takedowns in nine of his 10 UFC bouts. Lee secures a whopping 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, which is among the highest in the division. His physicality has become a real strength for him too, as he looks to keep improving and hopes to become a top contender in this weight class.
Matchup
An important lightweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 112, as both fighters look to approach the Top 5 of the division. This is a really interesting bout since it should be a battle of who is able to implement their ground strategy the best. Lee is without a doubt the more physical, stronger fighter. He’s had more success getting his opponents to the mat on a regular basis. Lee is strong in top control and can implement his game from there. Chiesa, while not as strong, is more lethal on the mat, as if he’s able to take an opponent’s back, his ability to finish is incredibly high. I think this is a dangerous fight for Lee, as even if he takes Chiesa to the mat, the opportunity for a transition or scramble putting him in a bad position is very possible. Lee has been caught before on the ground, and he is vulnerable to a hiccup in his fights. While I see Lee being able to get Chiesa to the mat, I see hum making a mistake by giving up his back and then being submitted by the more savvy MMA grappler. It’s not a lock by any stretch, as Lee will have the opportunity to control this fight. It comes down more to making a mistake, and that is where I expect Chiesa to capitalize. Given how both of these fighters approach their matchups, this fight is unlikely to go all five rounds. Both are aggressive and capable finishers. At just -265, the fight doesn’t go the distance is lined at -265. I think that’s the safest bet on this fight. If looking for dog odds, Chiesa by sub at +249 provides real value, as it’s by far his most likely way to win the fight. Chiesa has never knocked out an opponent in his pro career and only seen the scorecards twice in his nine UFC bouts.
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