UFC 211
Date: May 12, 2017
Arena: American Airlines Center
City: Dallas, TX
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to return to Dallas, TX for the fourth time in promotional history with UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos II. The incredibly stacked 14-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. ET, which will continue on FX at 8 p.m., with the main card getting underway on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are available at Several Bookmakers.
Here is my parlay:
Flyweight bout: Henry Cejudo (-440) vs. Sergio Pettis (+350)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Pettis is taking a big step up in competition with this bout following a unanimous-decision win over John Moraga a couple of months ago in Phoenix. Cejudo will undoubtedly be the stiffest test of his professional mixed martial arts career, and he will especially be a stiff test considering he is coming off a controversial split-decision loss to Joseph Benavidez. I think a hungry Cejudo should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite in this 125-pound contest, so at the current odds, I have to say this is a dog or pass situation. I definitely have to pass on playing the dog, because I think I would feel more confident parlaying Cejudo, despite the fact that I know the “value” is with Pettis. There’s just no way I could back either flyweight with my wallet here, so they’re both going to be a complete pass for me. However, I do favor a play on the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -325, as I do think that is the safest play here. I think Cejudo either outpoints Pettis or outwrestles him, and if Pettis manages to come out on top, it will likely be because he outscored Cejudo on the feet in a razor thin decision.
Gabe’s Call: Cejudo by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Women’s Stawweight bout: Cortney Casey (-125) vs. Jessica Aguilar (-105)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with the current odds in that this is a very close fight. For that reason, I see no betting value on either fighter. However, I do think the Total of 2.5 rounds at -245 holds some weight, as I think that line should be above 3-to-1. Regardless of who gets her hand raised here, I think the victory comes on the judges’ scorecards much more often than not. As for my official pick, I keep going back and forth and will need to see both fighters step on the scale before making up my mind, but for now, I’ll side with the younger fighter in Casey.
Gabe’s Call: Casey by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Cejudo/Pettis Over 2.5 rounds (-325) and Casey/Aguilar Over 2.5 rounds (-245) at -119
