UFC 146 Odds: Heavyweight Champion Junior dos Santos (-515) vs. Frank Mir (+365)

UFC 146UFC 146: May 26, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada Heavyweight Title Fight Junior dos Santos (-515) – Heavyweight Champion Profile: Dos Santos (14-1) has just one blemish on his career record, but that occurred nearly five years ago in Brazil’s Mo Team League against a fighter he had previously beaten in Joaquim Ferreira.  The 27-year-old UFC heavyweight champion has won nine bouts in a row since suffering that loss, with eight of those coming in the UFC.  Of those eight UFC fights, just two have gone the distance, with dos Santos earning unanimous decision wins over Roy Nelson at UFC 117 and Shane Carwin at UFC 131.  The victory against Carwin earned dos Santos a title shot vs. former heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez, who he knocked out in the first round at the first UFC on FOX event last November 12. Frank Mir (+365) Profile: Mir (16-5) is trying to become the first three-time UFC heavyweight champ, although one of his titles was earned on an interim basis before he lost to Brock Lesnar in a unification bout.  The 33-year-old Las Vegas native had handed Lesnar his first career loss by kneebar submission at UFC 81 and lost the rematch at UFC 100 via second-round TKO.  Mir is 4-1 since losing to Lesnar, with the lone loss during that stretch coming against Shane Carwin (first-round KO) for the interim heavyweight championship at UFC 111.  He is coming off a first-round submission victory against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by kimura at UFC 140 last December 10 that was named Submission of the Year. Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made current champion dos Santos a huge -515 favorite (bet $515 to win $100) against former champ Mir, who is a +365 underdog (bet $100 to win $365) according to the UFC 146 odds.  Dos Santos has only really been tested by Nelson and Carwin in going the distance against both fighters, but he clearly dominated both of them.  Mir is a much different fighter than Alistair Overeem, who was expected to meet dos Santos for the title but failed a drug test.  Unlike the powerful Overeem, Mir will likely try to get dos Santos to the ground and turn this fight into a wrestling match.  An interesting sidebar to this matchup is that Nogueira is a training partner of dos Santos, who has vowed that revenge is a non-issue for him after Mir broke his good friend’s arm in his last win.  Mir also defeated Nogueira previously by TKO for the interim heavyweight title at UFC 92, but his best bet for a win against dos Santos is to go for a submission.  The problem is, dos Santos has never been taken down and is a superior boxer who could definitely end this bout with one punch.

Written by Matty

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