Main Card Plays for UFC Fight Night 104

James VickUFC Fight Night 104: Bermudez vs Korean Zombie Date: February 4, 2016 Arena: Toyota Center City: Houston, TX The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Houston, TX for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 104: Bermudez vs Korean Zombie. The 12-fight card kicks off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET, and the prelims continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, with the main card getting underway at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available to you at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Here are my plays: Lightweight bout: Abel “Killa” Trujillo (+100) vs James “The Texecutioner” Vick (-110) Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Vick is the superior mixed martial artist of the two heading into this 155-pound contest and see value in him at his current coin-flip betting line of -110, as I think he should be favorited to win at round 2-to-1 odds. Trujillo has improved as a kickboxer and may have his moments on the feet in this contest, but I think he will have trouble against Vick’s boxing and reach. I can see Trujillo getting tired of eating jabs and looking to wrestle, at which point I think Vick will have opportunities to lock up a submission and earn a tap. This is a rare “winner vs loser” match-up in the UFC’s lightweight division, as Trujillo is on a winning streak, while Vick last saw action at UFC 199 seven months ago and suffered a first round TKO defeat at the hands of Beneil Dariush, marking the first official loss of his professional mixed martial arts career. I think he bounces back strong in this contest, and this is a match-up I could see him winning by submission, T/KO or decision. I predicted Dariush would defeat Vick by T/KO and recommended a bet on the prop at near 6-to-1 dog odds, because stylistically, I saw things playing out that way. Trujillo is a solid striker and finisher, but I think his chances of putting Vick away, while decent, are still a lot less than what Dariush’s chances were. In this particular match-up, I think Vick is more likely to put Trujillo away by T/KO than the other way around. I see this as being Vick’s fight to lose, and I think there are only two ways he can lose; if he gets caught by something funky, or he doesn’t take the fight seriously and didn’t train hard for it. I feel as long as he is hungry and mentally in tune, “The Texecutioner” will come out with his hand raised in Texas. Gabe’s Call: Vick by Submission (guillotine choke, 3:14 round 1) Gabe’s Recommeded Play: Vick (-110) 3.3u to win 3u Heavyweight bout: Anthony “Freight Train” Hamilton (-200) vs Marcel Fortuna (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: Fortuna is making his promotional debut in this contest against Hamilton, who is making a quick turnaround following a first round guillotine choke submission loss against Francis Ngannou several weeks back. Hamilton is eager to get back in the win column and I think his Octagon experience will benefit him in doing so in this contest against Hamilton. I think Fortuna is a solid prospect and a game opponent, but I think Hamilton will be too much for him in his Octagon debut. I see Fortuna coming up short here and taking a fight at light heavyweight for his next outing inside the Octagon. Fighting out of Jackson-Wink MMA in high altitude Albuequrque, NM., I see Hamilton having several advantages in this contest and think he gets his hand raised in Houston on Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Hamilton by T/KO (strikes, 1:13 round 1) Gabe’s Recommeded Play: Hamilton (-200) 2u to win 1u All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated. Click Here to Make a Donation!

Written by Gabe Killian

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