UFC Fight Night 103 Breakdown: Tony Martin vs Alex White

Tony-MartinPrior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at an intriguing preliminary bout between Americans Tony Martin and Alex White at UFC Fight Night 103 in Phoenix, Arizona.   Tony Martin (Record: 10-3, -290 Favorite, Fighter Grade: C-) The Midwest born-and-raised fighter currently trains out of Massachusetts with team Sityodtong. He’s fought five times in the UFC amassing a 2-3 record. Both of his UFC victories and eight of his 10 victories overall have come by submission. This is his first fight in 12 months. The 27-year old is a fighter who has a decent amount of promise. He’s very long for the lightweight division standing at 6 feet tall with a 73.5 inch reach. His striking is certainly not his strongest attribute. He has decent hands, but he is hittable on the feet and is susceptible to leg kicks. Where he is at his best is in the grappling exchanges. He secures over 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. His strength is underrated and once he has top control he is very dangerous. His submission game is well above average for MMA and he has submitted jiu jitsu black belts in the past. He has long limbs and that works in his favor in latching submissions. During his time in the UFC, he has beaten the fighters he was supposed to beat and has been beaten by ranked opponents.   Alex White (Record: 11-2, +245 Underdog, Fighter Grade: D+) The Missouri born UFC fighter has fought four times in the UFC; splitting wins and losses. White hasn’t fought since February 2016 when he beat Artem Lobov by decision. Prior to that fight, White had last fought in December 2014. White developed a perfect 9-0 record fighting on the regional circuit in his native Missouri. He is a very upright fighter in the stand up. He has decent hands and his output is above average for the featherweight division, but the rest of his striking game is rather static and he doesn’t move his head, making him vulnerable to counter striking. His wrestling game is rather poor with a takedown defense is a lackluster 50 percent. He’s been in trouble on the ground to below average grapplers and has been fortunate to not be submitted.   Matchup Tony Martin and Alex White square off on the opening fight of the televised prelims at UFC Fight Night 103. Like nearly any fight he will be in at lightweight, Martin will be the longer fighter. Martin’s size is a significant advantage as it allows him fight from range and then when there’s space he can look to secure takedowns. White is typically a large featherweight but is taking this fight as a lightweight on short notice so he should be at a major size disadvantage overall. In a prolonged standup bout, White will have his most opportunities as his output is quite a bit higher than Martin’s. However, Martin is a much better wrestler and should have success early and often in securing takedowns. On the ground, Martin is a much better submission grappler. White has made mistakes in previous fights both defending and looking to secure submissions. This will provide openings for Martin to latch in a submission and win this fight. Martin by submission is the most likely result of this fight and a prop I’ll be eyeing once lines are released. I lined Martin as a -200 favorite in this bout. I was surprised to see the line skyrocket to -290 given how Martin tends to slow down as his fights progress. If White keeps the fight standing, he has the ability to win, but still the most likely result is Martin submits him relatively early in the fight.

Written by Jay Primetown

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