Prop Plays for UFC 206

Jason-SaggoUFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis Date: December 10, 2016 Arena: Air Canada Centre City: Toronto, Ontario, Canada The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Toronto, Ontario, Canada for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis. The 12-fight card is set to get going with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET, and preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, with the main card getting underway on Pay Per View at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my prop plays: Cub Swanson (+180) vs Doo Ho Choi (-220) Choi Inside the Distance (-110) 1.1u to win 1u Choi by Decision (+390) .5u to win 1.95u I think Choi is more likely to win this fight via T/KO, but I think a victory on the scorecards is the second most likely outcome to this featherweight match-up. I like Choi’s chances of finishing this fight, so I am taking him to win Inside the Distance, and I am opting to take the ITD prop at -110 rather than the T/KO prop at +104 because I think the very minor difference is worth having the safety net, in case Choi pulls off the submission. I expect this fight to take place on the feet, but should it hit the mat, I don’t think a submission victory for the South Korean would be out of the realm of possibility. Though he prefers to strike, he does own one submission victory by armbar on his resume. It is also worth noting that five of seven of Swanson’s professional mixed martial arts career defeats have come by way of submission; all three of his losses in the UFC have been via tapout. Jordan Mein (-155) vs Emil Meek (+135) Mein by Decision (+415) 1u to win 4.15u Mein returns from his early retirement to take on promotional newcomer Meek, who is coming off a dominant first round knockout of Rousimar Palhares in Europe. I slightly favor Mein to win this fight by T/KO, but I think the Decision prop at +415 holds a lot more value than the T/KO prop at +158. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-180) vs Drew Dober (+158) Dober by T/KO (+700) 1u to win 7u I think Dober will have the striking advantage in this 155-pound contest, and coming off a first round knockout of promotional newcomer Jason Gonzalez, he should have a lot of confidence in his hands going into this bout against the French-Canadian. If Aubin-Mercier does not find success with his takedowns, I think Dober will outstrike him en route to a win on the scorecards, potentially scoring a T/KO finish along the way. I think a Decision victory is slightly more likely, but I think the T/KO prop at +700 holds a lot more value than the Decision prop at +260. Rustam Khabilov (-210) vs Jason Saggo (+175) Saggo by Submission (+1092) 1u to win 10.92u I favor this fight to hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, where it will probably end up being a coin-flip call. That said, I see a lot of value in this prop at +1092, as I think Saggo has a realistic chance of finishing this fight by submission. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Royler Gracie and owns eight of his 12 professional mixed martial arts victories by submission. I think this line should be at +400, so this may be the best betting value on this entire UFC 206 fight card.

Written by Gabe Killian

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