Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 206

ZachMakovskyUFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis Date: December 10, 2016 Arena: Air Canada Centre City: Toronto, Ontario, Canada The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Toronto, Ontario, Canada for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis. The 12-fight card is set to get going with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET, and preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, with the main card getting underway on Pay Per View at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Middleweight bout bout: Tim Kennedy (-145) vs Kelvin Gastelum (+125) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a really weird fight, mostly because of what both fighters just went through at UFC 205 last minute, which I don’t want to waste time getting into. I’m just going to assume you didn’t get into MMA yesterday and are up to date with what’s been going on. For the second time in his career, Gastelum has been forced to move up a weight class due to failing to make the welterweight limit. He meets Kennedy in his return to 185-pounds and I don’t expect it to be an easy fight for him, though I cannot count him out and think he can find a way to get his hand raised. I think this is more or less a coin-flip match-up and I can’t in good conscience advise anyone on making a play on either fighter. Gastelum may hold slight value at dog odds, but I think this fight has “pass” written all over it, so let’s avoid this one at the books come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Gastelum by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Women’s Strawweight bout: Valerie Letourneau (-175) vs Viviane Pereira (+155) Gabe’s Thoughts: Letourneau is coming off a rough second round TKO loss to Joanne Calderwood in what was the UFC’s first and only women’s flyweight contest to date. Coming off the loss, she is forced to cut down to 115-pounds again, a weight she has a very hard time making, though she always does. Pereira is an undefeated prospect making her debut in this contest and I think she could go on to have a bright future in the division. I think there are currently too many question marks surrounding both fighters to comfortably make a wager on either. I think Letourneau should be slightly favored here but there’s no way I could back her after seeing how she performed in her last bout and knowing how rough her cuts to strawweight are. This is another fight that is best off avoiding at the sportsbook this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Pereira by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Flyweight bout: Zack Machovsky (-160) vs Dustin Ortiz (+140) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Machovsky is the superior mixed martial artist of the two heading into this 125-pound scrap, though Ortiz has previously beaten superior competition. He is good at making the fights close and making sure the judges have a hard time scoring, as he owns controversial split decision wins over Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins. He was the betting underdog heading into those bouts, as well. At the current betting odds, I see no value in either fighter to back them them at the betting window. I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds, though the betting line for that Total is -365 and I see no value there, either. Looks like this is another one to avoid this Saturday, folks. Gabe’s Call: Machovsky by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!

Written by Gabe Killian

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