Fights to Avoid Betting for the UFC Fight Night 102 Prelims

Juliana LimaUFC Fight Night 102: Lewis vs Abdurakhimov Date: December 9, 2016 Arena: Times Union Center City: Albany, NY The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Albany, NY for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 102: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov. The event will feature 12 bouts, all of which will be streaming live on UFC Fight Pass. Preliminary action is set to kick off at 5:45 p.m. (ET) with the main card getting underway at 9 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Featherweight bout bout: Tiago Trator (+150) vs. Shane Burgos (-170) Gabe’s Thoughts: Burgos is a short-notice replacement for Zubaira Tukhugov, who was removed from the fight due to a USAD violation. I think this is an excellent matchup in the UFC’s 145-pound division, and I do think it is a close one to call. I agree with Burgos being the favorite here, however, I do not see value in betting him at his current offering price of -170. At the current odds, I think it is best to avoid making a play on this scrap at the sportsbook this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Burgos by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Light Heavyweight bout: Keith Berish (+230) vs. Ryan Janes (-270) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Janes is the rightful favorite heading into this 205-pound contest, though I don’t quite agree with his current asking price of -270. At the current odds, I think we are staring at a dog-or-pass situation here, and I just can’t get myself to back Berish at the sportsbook with my wallet. I think there are a lot of question marks surrounding both fighters, especially Janes. I think -270 is too much to pay for him while getting +230 is not nearly enough for playing Berish, who is an opponent Janes should be able to defeat, but you just can’t trust him, especially when he is making his UFC debut after being inactive for a year-and-a-half. Janes could end up coming out and scoring a quick finish, and I wouldn’t be surprised, but the risk just isn’t worth it. I believe this light heavyweight showdown is one to avoid at the sportsbook come Friday night in Albany. Gabe’s Call: Janes by Submission (rear naked choke, 2:36 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Women’s Strawweight bout: Juliana Lima (-240) vs. JJ Aldrich (+200) Gabe’s Thoughts: Aldrich is making her Octagon debut on short notice here, serving as an injury replacement for TUF 23 winner Tatiana Suarez, who was forced out of the bout due to injury. She last saw action at Invicta FC 20 just two weeks ago, where she picked up a unanimous-decision victory over Lynn Alvarez. She now enjoys a three-fight winning streak and a 4-1 official professional mixed martial arts record, with the lone blemish coming against fellow TUF 23 competitor Jamie Moyle under the Invicta FC banner. Moyle herself made her UFC debut this past weekend, earning a UD victory over Hawaii’s Kailin Curran. Lima will be a step up in competition for Aldrich, and as the current betting lines suggest, she has a tall task ahead of her. This is a tough matchup for Aldrich, especially on short notice, but I think it is one she is quite capable of winning. Lima enjoys a two-fight winning streak inside the Octagon and will be looking to make it three straight by taking out the promotional newcomer. I agree with Lima being the favorite in this women’s 115-pound contest, though I think the betting value is with Aldrich at her currently offered underdog pricetag of +200. I see this fight as a dog-or-pass situation, but the short-notice nature of the bout for Aldrich after she just fought two weeks ago makes me too nervous to pull the trigger on a wager for her. I do see her as a live dog in this contest, but I just can’t squeeze, so I must avoid this one and advise that you do, too. Gabe’s Call: Lima by Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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