Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 99 in Belfast

ali-bagautinovUFC Fight Night 99: Mousasi vs Hall II Date: November 19, 2016 Arena: SSE Arena Belfast City: Belfast, Northern Ireland The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Belfast, Northern Ireland with UFC Fight Night 99: Mouasi vs Hall II. The UFC will be in Belfast for the second time in promotional history and first since UFC 72 in 2007. The 14-fight card will air entirely on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action starting at 12:15pm ET and the main card following at 4pm. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my live dogs: Lightweight bout: Ross Pearson (-120) vs Stevie Ray (+100) Gabe’s Thoughts: I expect this fight to play out on the feet, where I think it will be close but feel Ray has more advantages in the department. I think he is the better boxer and packs more power, not to mention he has the better chin of the two and is the more likely one to end the fight with strikes. He is also a lot more likely to end the fight via submission, as that is a possible outcome for him, while being completely off the menu for Pearson. I initially thought I was going to be making a play on Pearson in this bout but after doing my homework, I’ve had a change of heart and now side with Ray, thinking he should be a slight betting favorite heading into the contest. Gabe’s Call: Ray by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ray (+100) 1.5u to win 1.5u Middleweight bout: Magnus Cedenblad (-230) vs Jack Marshman (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 185-pound scrap is much closer than the current betting odds suggest and think Marshman holds some value at the underdog pricetag of +190. I could see him stopping Cedenlad or edging out a narrow decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I agree with Cedenblad being the betting favorite but I think he is overpriced at his current asking price of -230. I see this is a “dog or pass” situation and ultimately I think the underdog is live enough to be worth a small stab. Gabe’s Call: Split Draw (29-29, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Marshman (+190) .5u to win .95u Flyweight bout: Ali Bagautinov (+165) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (-190) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think this is a coin-flip match-up, so I like Bagautinov for a small value play at his current underdog price of +165. Gabe’s Call: Bagautinov by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Bagautinov (+165) 1u to win 1.65u

Written by Gabe Killian

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