Prop Plays for UFC 205 in NYC

Jim_Miller_3UFC 205 Date: November 12, 2016 Arena: Madison Square Garden City: New York City, NY The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to New York City for the first time in both promotional and mixed martial arts history for UFC 205. The stacked 13 fight card will get going on with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET. Preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, leading into the Pay Per View main card at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my prop plays: Eddie Alvarez (+120) vs Conor McGregor (-140) Alvarez in Round One (+925) 1u to win 9.25u I think Alvarez has a better chance of finishing McGregor in round one of this fight than he did Rafael dos Anjos in his last fight, so at +925, I see this is a great value play. Tyron Woodley (+175) vs Stephen Thompson (-210) Thompson by T/KO (+135) 1u to win 1.35u I think 25 minutes is plenty of time “Wonderboy” to put Woodley away. In a three rounder, I would not have played this, however I think 25 minutes is just too much time. Unless Woodley is constantly on his bicycle the whole fight and Thompson is hesitant, I don’t see this fight hitting the cards; and as long as Thompson doesn’t get caught with something wild early, I see him walking away with the UFC Welterweight title, as I think this is his fight to lose. Chris Weidman (-185) vs Yoel Romero (+160) Weidman by Decision (+226) 1u to win 2.26u Putting it simply, I think Weidman winning a decision is the most likely outcome to this middleweight match-up, and at +226, I favor the prop for a wager. Rafael Natal (-155) vs Tim Boetsch (+155) Natal by Decision (+235) 1u to win 2.35u This is simply another value play, as I think Natal by Decision is the most likely outcome to this 185-pound contest. Thiago Alves (-155) vs Jim Miller (+135) Alves by T/KO (+298) 1u to win 2.98u Miller by Submission (+510) .5u to win 2.55u Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (+100) .5u to win .5u At this point, this is a very weird fight. Alves was set to make his UFC lightweight debut against Al Iaquinta but Iaquinta pulled out due to contract issues and was replaced by Miller. Alves missed weight so this match-up will now be contested at catchweight, and I don’t see it going the full three round distance. If Alves fails to finish Miller with strikes, Miller will likely find a way to get the fight to the mat and pull off a submission. Liz Carmouche (+155) vs Katlyn Chookagian (-175) Chookagian by T/O (+590) 1u to win 5.9u I think it is 50/50 as to whether Chookagian takes this fight on the judges’ scorecards or secures a finish. A submission is certainly not out of the question but I favor the T/KO and like the +590 line for a play.

Written by Gabe Killian

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