Prop Plays for UFC 204

Gegard MousasiUFC 204 Date: October 8, 2016 Arena: Manchester Arena City: Manchester, England The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to Mancheste, England for the fourth time in promotional history with UFC 204: Bisping vs Henderson II. The 12-fight card is set to kick off preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm and will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm. Main card action will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my prop plays: Gegard Mousasi (-330) vs Vitor Belfort (+300) Mousasi by Submission (+350) 1u to win 3.5u Mousasi by Decision (+570) .5u to win 2.85u I could easily see Mousasi winning this fight by T/KO, but I think a submission win is almost as likely, and at +350, I think that’s where the betting value is. While I do favor a finish, a dominant decision victory for Mousasi here would not be surprising, either. Stefan Struve (-165) vs Daniel Omielanczuk (+155) Struve by Decision (+333) 1u to win 3.33u Putting it simply, I think this is the most likely outcome to this heavyweight affair. Mirsad Bektic (-680) vs Russell Doane (+555) Bektic by Submission (+429) 1u to win 4.29u Bektic is -680 straight and +429 to win by submission. I see the majority of this bout taking place on the mat with the Bosnian-American featherweight in top position, where he will have opportunities to end the fight by submission, especially with the rear naked choke. I believe there’s value to be had here, considering the prop for a realistic outcome is +429, while he is a massive favorite straight-up. Brad Pickett (+140) vs Iuri Alcantara (-150) Pickett by T/KO (+1015) 1u to win 10.15u I would not be surprised to see Pickett live up to his “One Punch” moniker here against an aging veteran in Alcantara. At +1015, I do think it’s worth a value play, as I think the line should be around +600.

Written by Gabe Killian

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