Big Marley’s UFC 246 DraftKings Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

Big Marley’s UFC 246 Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

 

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

 

Scoring

Moves
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

 

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

 

This weekend, we have an 11-fight PPV card in Vegas with the return of Conor McGregor. He will be taking on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in a fight I cannot wait to watch and DraftKings has some great contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $24.60 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $324,625 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably max that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups. 

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

 

Cash Game play of the week – Maycee Barber – $9,500

If you can afford Barber, then I like her in all formats, but I think she is a lock in cash games. She should dominate this fight and if she gets top control I think she will finish with GNP. If she goes out there and wins a striking decision, then she won’t pay off that huge price tag, so she isn’t a must play here in GPPs, but I think she is a lock in cash games because of her -900 betting line. She is as close to it gets as a “lock” on this card and that is what we want in cash games and the ceiling isn’t as important. 

GPP play of the week – Maurice Greene/Aleksei Oleinik fight

I don’t have a confident pick on this fight, but I do think this will be a very important fight to target in GPPs this weekend. I wouldn’t think about taking either guy in cash games because they both have 0-point floors; However, we have a -800 FDGTD line which is the highest on the card and Fight Doesn’t Start Round 2 is -125. Somebody is likely going down early in this fight whether that is a Greene KO or an Aleksei submission. I am not confident in either side, but this is a fight I will load up on and be pretty evenly split between the two. If I was making just 1 lineup I would take Aleksei, simply because he is cheaper. 

Underdog play of the week – Justin Ledet – $7,400

I like Ledet because he is cheap on DK at $7.4k and the betting line is close to even. That discount is very nice, and I like him in all formats this week. I don’t think he has a big ceiling here, but he is one of the more live underdogs on the card and I think he could get 10x in a decision win here if FightMetric decides they want to count jabs as sig strikes this week. Any time we can get this much of a price discount on a fighter I am interested and on a card I don’t like many underdogs this is a play I will have quite a bit of this weekend. 

Fade of the week – Holly Holm $8,900

These two fought back in 2015 for Holm’s UFC debut and she ended up winning a Split Decision. I see this fight being similar to the first, but I do think Holm is levels above Rocky in the striking department, so I think she is going to get the job done again in a 15-minute striking battle. In their first fight, Holm scored 52 DK points in her decision win and at her $8.9k price tag that is going to kill your lineup. I think she needs a KO to score highly here and I don’t see that happening, so she is my fade of the week.  

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 107-79 for +262.92u (+$26,292) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/ 

 

Written by Kyle Marley

UFC 246: Weigh-in Video and Results

mma, ufc, podcast, video, mike, mike mma picks, odds, betting, picks, bets, gambling, mikemmapicks, ufc on ESPN+ 25

MMAOB Fight Morning Quick Card Breakdown Show with MikesMMAPicks: UFC 246