UFC on ESPN+ 30: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 takes place on Saturday, July 18 at Fight Island on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
UFC on ESPN+ 30: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Deiveson Figueiredo -150
Joseph Benavidez +130
Kelvin Gastelum -150
Jack Hermansson +130
Mark Diakiese -230
Rafael Fiziev +195
Ariane Lipski -125
Luana Carolina -105
Alexandre Pantoja -180
Askar Askarov +155
Roman Dolidze -180
Khadis Ibragimov +155
Grant Dawson -260
Nad Narimani +220
Joe Duffy -305
Joel Alvarez +225
Montel Jackson -160
Brett Johns +140
Arman Tsarukyan -230
Davi Ramos +195
Carols Felipe -130
Serghei Spivac +110
Amir Albazi -135
Malcolm Gordon +115
Here are my initial thoughts on the UFC on ESPN+ 30 Opening Odds:
- The third of four Fight Island events is headlined by a rematch for the vacant flyweight title between Figueiredo and Benavidez. These two fought back in February, with Figueiredo winning the fight via TKO after an accidental headbutt led to a finish. Unfortunately, Figueiredo missed weight so the UFC wasn’t able to crown a champion that night, and due to the controversial nature of the stoppage, the promotion is giving Benavidez another crack at the belt. Although I thought Benavidez would win the first fight, I find it hard to back him here as we already saw these two in action and it was clear that Figueiredo had the upper hand. Even before the finish, Figueiredo was looking good in the fight and it was likely a matter of time until he won as we saw he had a clear edge in the striking department. I respect Benavidez for what he’s done throughout his career, but Figueiredo is the rightful favorite in this fight.
- The co-main event is a really fun fight between two of the top-10 middleweights in the UFC as Gastelum takes on Hermansson. Gastelum is coming off of back-to-back losses to Israel Adesanya and Darren Till, but both of those fights were very competitive and he has proven he’s an elite guy at 185lbs. As for Hermansson, he is coming off of a TKO loss to Jared Cannonier that snapped a four-fight win streak. Both guys need to bounce back here and it’s a tricky fight to call, but I feel like Gastelum has earned his favorite status based on the wins he’s racked up throughout his career. It’s definitely a close fight and Hermansson is a live underdog here, and the line has moved to essentially a Pick ’em since it opened up.
- Looking down the card, I’m looking forward to the return of Duffy as he takes on Alvarez in a lightweight bout. Duffy hasn’t won since 2017 but at one point he was running through everyone in his path. It will be interesting to see if he can get back to his winning ways here. As for Alvarez, he’s coming off of a knockout win in his last fight after losing his UFC debut. However, Duffy has been in the cage with far better opposition and is much more proven. The high juice has to make you cautious here, but Duffy should roll if he gets back to his old form.
