If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card at the Apex in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Arnold Allen $8,200 vs Calvin Kattar $8,000
I would start my cash lineup by stacking this fight and taking the possible 50 minutes of total action and guaranteed win. This is the mid-ranged priced fight of the week, and they have 25-minutes to work with, so I love it for GPPs as well. The winner of this fight should score over 10x, and they can get over 100 as well. I will be going close to all-in on this fight as a whole. Kattar is my preferred play though because he is $200 cheaper so I will be overweight to him and then have Allen in the lineups that Kattar isn’t in. I also like hand building my favorite Allen lineup and duplicating it with Kattar as well. I just have no lean on this fight, and I will just be loading up and hoping I hit the right combo.
GPP fight of the week – Waldo Cortes-Acosta $9,000 vs Jared Vanderaa $7,200
This is a great GPP fight with a -250 FDNGTD line. Acosta is -115 ITD and that could come in any round with decent volume leading up to it. He could also get a takedown and finish with GNP. Vanderaa could do the same thing though and he is the one that probably goes overlooked by the field. If Vanderaa wins then he should score over 10x, and he can even score 100+. I want to be overweight to Vanderaa for those reasons, but I do expect Acosta to win and score well so I will also look to be overweight to him. I want this fight in 65+% of my lineups and I would lean towards Acosta as my preferred play in a SE.
Underdog play of the week – Cody Durden $7,700
Durden is my underdog of the week because I am picking to win, and if he wins then I would expect him to score over 10x this $7.7k price tag. He is the guy with a full training camp, and he should be looking to wrestle. If he has success with the wrestling, then he can score 90+ in a decision win and make the optimal lineup. I like to target guys who can score well in decisions, but he could finish the fight as well and of course score well that way too.
Fade of the week – Max Griffin $8,800
Griffin probably needs a KO to have any shot at scoring 100+ in this fight and if he wins a decision then he might not even score 10x this $8.8k price tag. I do think he is live for the KO, but other guys priced around him are more likely to get it and I would also rather target grapplers over the KO shot. I won’t full fade Griffin if I make 150 lineups this week, but he won’t be a guy I am looking to target with my 10 or less hand built lineups so that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 227-213 for +243.70u (+$24,370) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)