Big Marley’s UFC Paris Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Paris, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Abus Magomedov $8,900

Magomedov is making his UFC debut here and he looks solid and well-rounded. He could win this fight on the ground if he is the one landing takedowns, but he should have a big edge on the feet. This will be Magomedov or pass for me in all formats and I like him as one of the “safer” cash game options. Underdog Fantasy has his O/U on takedowns set at 1 which isn’t great, but he does have a +120 ITD line and he could finish in any round. Stoltzfus has a +500 ITD line though so I wouldn’t worry about Magomedov getting sparked early like some of these other big favorites could.

GPP fight of the week – Benoit Saint-Denis $9,200 vs Gabriel Miranda $7,100

This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card with a -300 FDNGTD. Miranda is a great boom/bust play because 15 of his 16 wins are in round 1 and the other was early in round 2. If he can continue his ways in this fight, then he is going to be on the optimal lineup. He is a guy we have to get some exposure to if MMEing, but Saint-Denis is my preferred play of the two. Denis has a -135 ITD line and he can finish this fight in any round. He can also score well in a decision if he is able to dominate a gassed Miranda in rounds 2 and 3. I want this fight in most of my GPP lineups, but it is GPP only because they both have low floors.

Underdog play of the week – Cristian Quinonez $7,900

Quinonez is my underdog of the week, and I am fine with him in all formats. Quinonez has a low floor with the KO potential from Taha which is a worry for cash games, but I do think he is the better fighter here and he can score well if he mixes in takedowns and looks to grapple. I will be overweight to Quinonez in GPPs because he is an underdog I am picking to win and if he doesn’t get knocked out then I see him getting his hand raised, and I would favor him in this matchup.

Fade of the week – Fares Ziam $7,700

Ziam needs a 1st or 2nd round finish to have any high ceiling in basically any fight, and I would even say that is the only way he gets over 10x in a win. He isn’t a wrestler, and he is a low-volume striker. Most of his points would need to come from a finish bonus, and I will take my chances and fade that outcome.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 218-207 for +233.20u (+$23,320) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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