Big Marley’s UFC Paris Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

Moves
Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

 

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Paris, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Abus Magomedov $8,900

Magomedov is making his UFC debut here and he looks solid and well-rounded. He could win this fight on the ground if he is the one landing takedowns, but he should have a big edge on the feet. This will be Magomedov or pass for me in all formats and I like him as one of the “safer” cash game options. Underdog Fantasy has his O/U on takedowns set at 1 which isn’t great, but he does have a +120 ITD line and he could finish in any round. Stoltzfus has a +500 ITD line though so I wouldn’t worry about Magomedov getting sparked early like some of these other big favorites could.

GPP fight of the week – Benoit Saint-Denis $9,200 vs Gabriel Miranda $7,100

This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card with a -300 FDNGTD. Miranda is a great boom/bust play because 15 of his 16 wins are in round 1 and the other was early in round 2. If he can continue his ways in this fight, then he is going to be on the optimal lineup. He is a guy we have to get some exposure to if MMEing, but Saint-Denis is my preferred play of the two. Denis has a -135 ITD line and he can finish this fight in any round. He can also score well in a decision if he is able to dominate a gassed Miranda in rounds 2 and 3. I want this fight in most of my GPP lineups, but it is GPP only because they both have low floors.

Underdog play of the week – Cristian Quinonez $7,900

Quinonez is my underdog of the week, and I am fine with him in all formats. Quinonez has a low floor with the KO potential from Taha which is a worry for cash games, but I do think he is the better fighter here and he can score well if he mixes in takedowns and looks to grapple. I will be overweight to Quinonez in GPPs because he is an underdog I am picking to win and if he doesn’t get knocked out then I see him getting his hand raised, and I would favor him in this matchup.

Fade of the week – Fares Ziam $7,700

Ziam needs a 1st or 2nd round finish to have any high ceiling in basically any fight, and I would even say that is the only way he gets over 10x in a win. He isn’t a wrestler, and he is a low-volume striker. Most of his points would need to come from a finish bonus, and I will take my chances and fade that outcome.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 218-207 for +233.20u (+$23,320) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

BigMarley3

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

https://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/bigmarley3/?ref=1

On Deck: Looking Ahead To Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz

mma, ufc, podcast, video, mike, mike mma picks, odds, betting, picks, bets, gambling, mikemmapicks, ufc on ESPN 8

MMAOB Fight Morning Quick Card Breakdown Show with MikesMMAPicks – UFC Paris