Big Marley’s UFC San Diego Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in California, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – David Onama $8,600

Onama is one of my top plays on the slate with him priced at $8.6k but him lined as the 3rd biggest favorite on the slate. He is -120 ITD and I see him winning with a 1st round (T)KO. I want Onama in half or more of my lineups for those reasons. The value is what makes him a great cash game play as well and I don’t see him getting finished early and destroying our cash lineup. There are other good spots on the card for cash games as well, but this is where I would start.

GPP fight of the week – Josh Quinlan $9,100 vs Jason Witt $7,100

This is one of the best GPP fights on the card and both guys are in play. We have a -200 FDNGTD line and Quinlan has a -125 ITD line himself. Witt has a bad chin, and he probably does get caught at some point in this fight. Witt has been knocked out in the first minute of the fight twice already and that is a slate breaking bonus is Quinlan can do that. If Witt can win this fight, it should be very grappling heavy, and he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Either way, I want to load up on this fight, but I do think Quinlan gets the knockout.

Underdog play of the week – Devin Clark $7,800

Clark is my underdog play of the week simply because he is the only underdog I picked to win. I don’t feel good about him winning and I don’t see huge upside for him, but I do think he can mix in takedowns and score around 10x if he gets his hand raised. The line for Decision Only actually has Clark favored at -165 and if he can avoid the knockout shot from Murzakanov then I like his chances here.

Fade of the week – Youssef Zalal $8,200

I usually like my curtain jerkers, but this is one I don’t see me getting much exposure to. FGTD is lined at -190 and I don’t see a high ceiling for either guy if this does go the distance. Zalal is not a high-volume striker, and I really just don’t see any 100+ upside for him. He could score 10x or so in a win, but I would rather target higher ceilings and that is why Zalal is going to be my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 217-205 for +237.40u (+$23,740) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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