If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Long Island, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Brian Ortega $8,500 vs Yair Rodriguez $7,700
Since this is a 5-round fight, I will be close to all in. We can stack in cash games, but the winner should score over 10x because they are priced in the mid-range. Ortega is my preferred play because he has a higher ceiling if he does have a grappling-based game plan. He could get a submission in any round and score well that way, but he could also score well in a decision if he is mixing in takedowns. Rodriguez should be a lock for over 10x if he gets the win though and he scored 81 DK points in a loss in his last fight. It is a tough fight to feel safe going solo and there aren’t a lot of pay up options I love on this card, so the main event stack is where I would start my cash lineup this week.
GPP fight of the week – Jack Shore $8,400 vs Ricky Simon $7,800
I love this fight for GPPs and neither fighter has a win on their record that would have scored less than 10x their salary this week. Both guys are great wrestlers, and they could have a lot of ground success to score well, and I would think the winner does score over 10x here. Both guys have 100+ upside as well and I want this fight in 75% or more of my lineups. Shore will be my preferred play because I am picking him to win, and he can finish on the feet or the ground. If Simon wins then it is more likely a decision, but he will still score well because he can wrestle at a high pace and he can rack up takedowns and top control time. I want a lot of him as well, but he should be one of the more popular underdogs. Load up on whoever you want but get shares of the other guy. I don’t hate either side in cash games either, but Shore is my preferred play all-around.
Underdog play of the week – Herbert Burns $7,500
This is one of the better GPP fights on the card and it has a -165 FDNGTD line. Algeo ITD is +165 and Burns ITD is +275. Both of those are solid but Burns has the higher ceiling IMO, so he is my preferred play. Burns should be looking to wrestle and grapple early in this fight, and he could submit Algeo in round 1 and lock up his spot on the optimal lineup. I want to be overweight to him because he should score well if he wins. I would expect at least 10x, but he could score over 100 because his big edge is on the mat and that is what usually scores the most points on DK.
Fade of the week – Dwight Grant $8,900
The only way I see Grant making the optimal lineup would be a 1st round KO. He just doesn’t have the output to score well without the early finish bonus and a knockdown. He will be a full fade for me, and I will take my chances on him not getting it. Even if he gets a 2nd round knockout then he might not score enough to hit over 10x and that is likely what we will need for him to make the optimal lineup. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 209-203 for +228.18u (+$22,818) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)