Big Marley’s UFC Austin Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Texas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Cody Stamann $9,500

This will probably be Stamann or pass for me in GPPs, but I do like Stamann for cash games. He is the only “safe” win on the slate, so I like that for cash games but the $9.5k is going to be hard for me to afford in GPPs. I don’t like the underdogs on this slate and Stamann has only had one win that would make the optimal with this price tag. If he doesn’t get a KO or wrestle heavily then he won’t score well. He could win a decision on the feet and that is the worry. He could also test the 86% takedown defense from Wineland and land takedowns in every round.

GPP fight of the week – Donald Cerrone $8,300 vs Joe Lauzon $7,900

I love this fight for GPPs, and it has a -225 FDNGTD line. I am always a Cowboy guy, and I will be heavy on him again here. He is the better fighter and if he can get going in this fight then I expect him to take over and finish Lauzon. He has 23 fights on his fight log with at least 90 DK points and that is what I am expecting from him again here. I will be overweight to the field, but he is a GPP only play. Lauzon is also very in play here and he could possibly break the slate with a 60-second finish. He is a smart fighter, and he has said he plans to blitz Cowboy right away. He did that in his last fight against Jonathan Pearce who has been killing it since then and he scored 107 DK points in that fight. If he is successful, then he is going to end up on the optimal lineup. If he doesn’t win in that first round, then I think it gets worse for him the longer the fight goes. GPP only for both sides but I want this in close to ¾ of my total lineups.

Underdog play of the week – Joaquin Buckley $7,600

This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card with its -200 FDGTD line. I see this fight ending in round 1 or 2 and the winner should score enough for the optimal if that is the case. Buckley should be the better striker in this fight, but his big edge is going to be his KO power. Duraev has been TKO’d 3 times already and Buckley has fight-ending power in those first two rounds and a KO in either should give him a high enough score for the optimal. I don’t feel good about Buckley getting the win, but he does have one of the highest underdog ceilings and that is what I like to target in GPPs.

Fade of the week – Gloria de Paula $9,200 vs Maria Oliveira $7,000

This fight is going to be a fade for me with its -280 FGTD line. If this is a 15-minute striking match, then neither of them will score well. De Paula would be my preferred play though because she will be low owned, and she is the one who is more likely to wrestle and have a higher ceiling in a decision. She probably needs a finish to pay off $9.2k though so I probably just X the fight out of my player pool. Oliveira is in play as a cheap cash game punt in hopes that she can put up 30 in a loss or pull out a win, but I don’t see a ceiling for her to interest me in GPPs.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 207-194 for +238.93u (+$23,893) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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