Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 54 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas back at the Apex, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Ion Cutelaba $8,900

Cutelaba is my favorite play on the card, and I think he can score over 100 DK points with a KO or by racking up takedowns in a decision win. He has 17 takedowns in his last 2 fights, and I could see Spann accepting takedowns so he can try for a submission. Cutelaba is -135 to get a TKO in this fight and he can rack up a lot of points in the path to that TKO. I want Cutelaba in at least half my lineups and he is the closest thing on the slate to an “all-in” play for me.

GPP fight of the week – Manuel Torres $8,300 vs Frank Camacho $7,900

This is one of the best GPP fights on the card with a -250 FDNGTD line. We don’t know much about Torres, but he does finish fights and almost all his wins are in round 1. Camacho is a guy that had been finished 7 times and he is coming off a 41 second KO loss. Torres has that big upside so he is a fine play and could score over 100 at only $8.3k. If he doesn’t get that early finish, then I don’t know that he wins this fight. Camacho has 17 KO wins, and he is a high-paced fighter. He should be locked in for over 10x in a win and he has 100+ upside as well. He is one of my favorite underdogs to target and I will be overweight to a chalky Camacho. This is a fight I would want in ¾ of my lineups though because we should see a high score and they are priced in the mid-range.

Underdog play of the week – Louis Smolka $7,100

Smolka is a contrarian dog that I want to be overweight on this weekend. Smolka has 8 UFC wins and 7 of them he scored 94-157 DK points. When he wins, he scores big. I think the submission win is in play for him here with Grant being finished in 3 of his last 5 losses and I don’t see him getting much ownership at all. I think the Grant side is also very in play in this fight, but I see Smolka being a lock for 10x or more if he wins and I don’t think it’s the same case for Grant at $9.1k.

Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian $8,600

Chookagian is always my fade of the week, and it is no different here. She isn’t much of a wrestler and she doesn’t knock people out, so we are just relying on striking volume and a win bonus for her scores. She has 14 fights on her fight log and only 1 of them would have been more than 10x this $8.6k price tag. She will be low owned though and Ribas is chinny so if you want a reason to play her, that is it.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 204-184 for +241.86u (+$24,186) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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