Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 52 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card back in Vegas in the Apex, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Alexander Romanov – $9,600

Romanov should smash here. If this was a striking only fight, then Sherman could have a chance, but Romanov is going to maul him on the ground and most likely finish him with a submission or GNP TKO. Romanov is one of the biggest favorites I have ever seen in the UFC. He has a huge -455 ITD line and he is -200 in round 1. He also wants to get the fight to the mat. He is really one of the best plays on paper we have seen. He is a lock in cash games, and I want all I can afford in GPPs as well.

GPP fight of the week – Marcin Prachnio $8,400 vs Philipe Lins $7,800

This is a good GPP fight to target both sides of and hope that we get a finish. FDNGTD is -225 and both guys have weak chins. I hate taking a stand on either side and I don’t like risking a SE lineup on either guy, but this fight could end in round 1. I probably just fade the fight with my SE and then just get exposure to both sides in GPP. I would guess I end up with more Lins because he is a dog with a high ceiling. I do think this fight ends in a knockout though so that is why I like it for GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Montana de La Rosa – $7,200

I expect Montana to be the 2nd highest owned underdog on the slate, but she is a lock in cash games for me and she is so cheap that I have to go heavy in GPPs. If she wins this fight, then she will have success with her wrestling and grappling and that will score more than 10x this $7.2k price tag.

Fade of the week – Maycee Barber – $9,000

Barber is an easy fade just because she is priced around all the high ceiling, big favorites. She could get an early finish or have wrestling success of her own, but she is only +275 ITD and the price is just too high. If this fight happened 100 times, I would expect De La Rosa’s average win score to be higher scoring than Barbers.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 199-183 for +238.81u (+$23,881) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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