Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 51 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight PPV card back in Vegas in the Apex, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Pat Sabatini – $9,200

Sabatini is one of the better plays on the card in all formats because he has a big grappling edge. He can get a submission and score well, or he can just land takedowns and rack up top control time and still score well in a decision win. The striking should be close between the two but Sabatini shouldn’t be looking to spend too much time on the feet because he should clearly win on the ground and I am going to pick him to get a submission win.

GPP fight of the week – Vicente Luque $8,500 vs Belal Muhammad $7,700

This is an all-in fight. I want this in 100% of my GPP lineups and it is a stack in cash fight. My preferred play is going to be Muhammad because he is a dog that I am picking to win a 5-round match and if he does win then it will include a decent amount of wrestling. Luque is going to score very well if he wins though so if Muhammad isn’t in my lineup, then Luque will be. I would guess I go 60/40 in Muhammad’s favor, and I would rather stack this in a GPP rather than fade it.

Underdog play of the week – Kevin Croom – $7,400

Croom in in play in all formats and I do want to be overweight to the field personally. I could see Croom winning this fight by any method, but he should be the more dangerous grappler and the higher volume striker. I think he can finish and be a lock for the optimal after the first fight and I also think he would have high enough volume that he would score near 10x in a decision. I think he has a safe enough floor for cash games as well because Alateng ITD is only +200 but he isn’t a good wrestler, so he probably needs a finish to have a shot at a big score.

Fade of the week – Pannie Kianzad – $9,100

Kianzad is going to be a full fade for me this week. She has never scored more than 80 DK points, so she is just priced too high at $9.1k. She did finish Lansberg in their first matchup but that was a decade ago so Lansberg would really need to be washed for Kianzad to score enough for the optimal. I do think she clearly wins the fight; I just don’t think she scores enough to be on the optimal lineup and that is what we are looking to hit.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 198-183 for +236.59u (+$23,659) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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