Big Marley’s UFC 273 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Florida, and we are back in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $600,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Alexander Volkanovski – $9,500

Volkanovski is a core play for me in all formats this weekend coming off his 136-point victory against Ortega. Volkanovski is a lock for cash games as the biggest favorite on the slate at -720 and he is a top 2-3 play on the card who I want in more than half of my GPP lineups. He is a high-paced striker who can land multiple takedowns in any round, and he probably scores over 100 DK points here. He might have to score the most on the card to be on the optimal lineup though so we can get away for ownership purposes, but I expect a high score in a clear win.

GPP fight of the week – Anthony Hernandez $8,700 vs Josh Fremd $7,500

This is a great GPP fight to target with a -500 FDNGTD line and I like both sides of it. Fremd is my preferred play because he is an underdog, and he is more likely to end up on the optimal lineup if he does finish. Hernandez still has to compete with the other favorites if he gets a finish so that’s why I am lower on him, but he can finish this fight anywhere in any round so I do want exposure there as well and he is a good pivot away from the top 3 guys. I want this lineup in half or more of my GPP lineups but avoid both sides in cash games.

Underdog play of the week – Mark Madsen – $7,800

Madsen is my underdog play of the week and I like him in all formats. I do expect him to be somewhat popular, but I still probably end up overweight. Madsen is a great wrestler who we have seen land up to 8 takedowns in a fight. Pichel has poor takedown defense, and he was taken down 4 times by the guy who Madsen took down 8 times. I think the wrestling is the PTV for Madsen here and if he can wrestle heavy for 2 rounds and just survive the 3rd, I would think that still scores well. There are a couple underdogs I like on this card, but wrestling/grappling is my favorite style to target.

Fade of the week – Julio Arce – $9,000

Everybody and their mother gave out Pennington as their fade this week so I will go with someone different and take Arce as mine. Arce will be a full fade for me on DK at $9k because he is just priced too highly to the core plays on the card. He has 8 fights on his fight log and only 1 would have scored over 10x that $9k price tag. He needs an early KO to pay off that price tag and I would rather just pay up for the top 3 guys. I think the only reason to play Arce would be for ownership purposes because he will be low owned and then just hope he gets a 1st round KO to knock off the popular plays. I won’t be going there myself though and I would rather play his opponent for cheap.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 197-182 for +236.47u (+$23,647) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

UFC 273 Prop Betting Selections

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