Big Marley’s UFC 272 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card at the T-Mobile arena in the big cage. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Umar Nurmagomedov – $9,600

Umar is a cash game lock for me as the biggest favorite on the card and the RDA salary savings. If he goes out there with a game plan to keep at range and win with kicks then he won’t score well in a decision win. However, he is a solid grappler and he landed 5 takedowns and got a 2nd round submission in his last fight, and I think that same success is in play here. He scored 112 DK points in that fight and if he does that again then he is going to be a great GPP play as well. This is a week where it’s not hard to pay up and for cash games and Umar is one of two clear pay ups for me.

GPP fight of the week – Serghei Spivac $8,700 vs Greg Hardy $7,500

This is a great GPP fight to target in GPPs with its -225 FDNGTD line. If Spivac wins, it is likely going to be grappling-heavy, and I would expect a finish on the ground at some point. This is a fight to avoid in cash games, but I do plan on being overweight on Spivac in GPP because I am picking him to win ITD. I think Hardy will be somewhat popular but a 1st round KO slate breaker is in play for Hardy and he could even get the 60-second bonus. I think the winner has a decent chance at 100+ DK points here and this is a fight I want to have in more than half of my total GPP lineups.

Underdog play of the week – Rafael Dos Anjos – $7,300

We get a favorite as an underdog play this week and he is just the “free square” of the week, especially in cash games. RDA was almost a 2-1 underdog to Fiziev when the DK salaries were released and now, we get him at the same price, but he is a -180 favorite in a 5-round fight. We have to take that value in cash games, and he will be the most owned “underdog” salary wise on the slate for GPPs as well. He is much more likely to win than everyone priced around him and with 5-rounds to work with he is more likely to score more than most of them in a win. If you want to get different and not eat the chalk then do that in GPPs, but this is the first guy in our cash game lineups.

Fade of the week – Marina Rodriguez – $9,300

Rodriguez is going to be a full fade for me on DraftKings. Rodriguez is priced right below my two favorite plays on the card and at $9.3k she is just priced out of my lineups because she doesn’t score enough. She is coming off two 5-round wins where she scored 89 and 85 DK points and now, she has two less rounds to work with. I think this could be a fun high-paced fight and maybe she even wins every round. I still don’t think she can score enough to make the optimal lineup and that is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where

I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 188-180 for +222.93u (+$22,293) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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