If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 15-fight PPV card back in the big cage. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Ronnie Lawrence – $9,300
Lawrence is probably my favorite play on the card. I love the pace and wrestling from this kid and that is his best and least dangerous PTV in this fight. We don’t even need a finish to get over 100 DK points here and I would expect a high score if he gets the win. Lawrence had 12 takedowns on the Contender Series and 8 takedowns in his UFC debut and with that sort of up upside it gives him the highest ceiling on the card. Him getting knocked out would be the worry for cash games so he isn’t a lock, but I think he wins this fight if he stays conscious and he probably puts up a big score.
GPP fight of the week – Derrick Lewis $8,800 vs Tai Tuivasa $7,400
FDNGTD is lined at -650 which is the highest on the card, and that makes this a fight we have to target with MME. Either side could end this fight with a 1st round knockout, and they have a good chance at the optimal if that happens. Vegas is giving it a 50% chance of finishing in round 1 and both guys have the power in their hands to get the 60-second bonus with just one shot. I wouldn’t trust the floor of these guys for cash games, but this is a fight we should be loading up on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week – Derek Brunson – $7,600
Brunson is a guy that has 100-point upside even in a decision win, and he has had at least 2 takedowns in all of his last 5 fights. His last 3 fights he has averaged 4.33 takedowns and 118.667 DK points, and that is his PTV in this fight. He needs to land takedowns in every round to avoid getting knocked out and if he does win this fight, he should score well. I like Brunson as an overweight GPP play but I don’t love his floor so I think we can get away from him in cash games.
Fade of the week – Andrei Arlovski – $8,300
These are HWs, so the KO is in play for both sides and that is probably what we would need for a chance at 100-points from either guy. Vegas has this fight -175 to go the distance though so that makes it more of a dog or pass fight for me. This is in the big cage, and I don’t expect these guys to go out there and brawl in a phone booth. We could see decent volume from these guys but even if we do then I don’t see Arlovski scoring much more than 10x in a win. I would rather target higher and more likely ceilings, so that is why he is a fade for me.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 186-177 for +225.25u (+$22,525) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)