If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Sean Strickland – $8,800
I think the main event stack is the way to go for cash games this week, but Strickland is my preferred play between the two. I expect this to be one of the higher-paced fights on the card and we have 25 possible minutes to work with. I just don’t see how this fight doesn’t score over 100 DK points and the winner can get there themselves. Strickland is the better striker, and he strikes at a high enough pace that he can score well in a decision, and we can still get around 40 or more from Hermansson in a loss if we are stacking. This is my favorite fight on the card for DK purposes and I will be loading up on both sides in GPPs, but this is where I would be starting my cash game lineup.
GPP fight of the week – Phil Rowe $8,400 vs Jason Witt $7,800
This is a good GPP fight but not one we should be trusting in cash games. Witt’s PTV is through the ground and doesn’t need a finish to score well. He landed 8 takedowns in his last fight and scored 108 DK points in a decision. I just don’t see how he wins this fight and scores less than 10x. He does have a super questionable chin though and it only takes one big shot in any round for him to be knocked out. That is what makes Rowe a good play as well because if he gets a 1st round KO then he is most likely on the optimal lineup. I do think we are relying on the finish for the majority of the Rowe points though so the earlier the better and I would expect him to spend time trying to stuff takedowns or work back to his feet where he won’t be scoring. Witt is going to be my preferred play of the two, but I do like mixing in a lot of both sides in my MME lineups.
Underdog play of the week – Nick Maximov – $7,600
Maximov is my underdog play of the week because his PTV is through the ground. He is not going to want to strike with Soriano in this fight and he should be looking for takedowns from the opening bell. He is live for a submission here which would be great, but he doesn’t even have to finish the fight to have a chance at 100 DK points. He can land multiple takedowns in this fight and rack up control time, and if he can get those takedowns in round 1 then he will take the power away from Soriano and the fight should get easier as it moves along. This isn’t a confident pick, and he could get his head taken off in round 1 and kill our lineups, but he is a dog that I plan on being overweight to in GPPs.
Fade of the week – Brendan Allen – $9,300
Allen is a guy I like to target when I think he has a grappling advantage, but I don’t see this being a fight where he can get it to the ground when he wants, and I think he more so looks to strike. He beat Puna Soriano in a striking match two fights ago and he only scored 68 DK points in that fight. That will not cut it for $9.3k and he might be a full fade for me because I think he will still get a good chunk of ownership. I think Allen could win this fight anywhere, but his price tag and ownership is what makes him my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 185-175 for +224.85u (+$22,485) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)