If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 15-fight PPV in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Amanda Nunes – $9,500
Nunes is the easy cash game play, and she should be in every cash game lineup. If you want to fade her then do that in GPPs but my cash lineup would start with Nunes and the main event. Nunes is a -1000 favorite with a -330 ITD line. She is levels above Pena anywhere this fight goes, and she can dominate this fight from the opening bell and finish in any round. There are some solid pivots in GPPs if you don’t think she will be the highest scoring fighter on the slate, but she is the safest play on the board and that’s what we want in cash games. Lock her in and take the free win.
GPP play of the week – Bruno Silva – $9,400
This isn’t a sneaky play at all, but I think it makes more sense as a pivot off Amanda Nunes. Nunes is $100 more, and she could be almost twice as owned as Silva here. Silva is a hard hitting fighter and he can end this fight in the 1st minute and be the highest scoring fighter on the slate. He has a -225 ITD line and a better line than Nunes for the 1st round finish at +110. He has to get the 1st round KO to have a shot at beating her but I think it is very in play here and with the ownership discount I think we can get away from Nunes who will be owned by more than half the field. The other $9k options are fine pivots as well but I am going with Silva as my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Charles Oliveira – $7,600
This is an all-in fight for me and an easy stack in cash games. This is going to be a high paced fight and we shouldn’t need the judges with a -360 FDNGTD line. I want this fight in 100% of my lineups because I don’t see any way this fight plays out and these guys don’t score well over 10x and more likely 100+. I think if you are fading this fight you are hoping for a backstage injury or an eye poke NC. I would rather stack it than fade it tbh. I am fine going overweight on either side here, but I will be on the Do Bronx side personally. I wouldn’t go all-in on either one side, but I could see me taking a 60%+ stand on Do Bronx here and I think he will be the lower owned of the two.
Fade of the week – Ryan Hall – $8,900
Ryan Hall can easily go out there and get a 1st round submission and score over 90-points here, but I am still not interested. That is his ceiling is the 90-point win bonus because he doesn’t know how to wrestle so he won’t rack up many, if any takedowns so I don’t see him having a 110+ ceiling like the $9k range does. I would rather pay up for anyone in the $9k range and if I can afford them then I would rather save money and go down to Poirier. Aside from just the submission game, I am not impressed with Hall’s ability to put up huge DK scores and even if he does get the 1st round submission, I don’t think it puts him in the optimal lineup for GPPs.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 184-171 for +229.42u (+$22,942) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)