Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 44 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 15-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Brendan Allen – $9,600

Allen is my cash game play of the week because he is the biggest favorite on the card, and he has a clear PTV with a high DK score with a grappling-heavy game plan. I think he can win all 3 rounds on the ground in this fight, and I think he is very in play for a submission as well with his +130 ITD line. Allen is my preferred play in all formats in this fight and if I can afford it, then I would like to be overweight to him in GPPs as well.

GPP play of the week – Azamat Murzakanov – $9,300

This is one of the better GPP fights to target with its -200 FDNGTD line. Murzakanov has a +100 ITD line and he is an early finisher, so he is more likely to win with a 1st round KO and that should put him on the optimal if he does. Murzakanov is making his UFC debut here with a perfect 10-0 record. 8 of those wins are finishes and they are all in round 1. I think he can get a 1st round KO here or get takedowns and finish the fight with a TKO on the ground. Either of those would score 100+ points and I think an early finish is his best chance at the win.

Underdog play of the week – Maki Pitolo – $7,600

Pitolo is my preferred play in this fight, and I like him in all formats. He is going to be one of my favorite underdogs to click on, but I expect him to be popular as well. The KO is what we are hoping for in order for him to have 100+ points here but as the underdog we don’t have to have 100+ and he could land a couple takedowns and score over 10x in a decision win. I hate the striking defense from Dusko though where he moved backwards with his chin in the air and his hands down and I think a guy like Pitolo can make him pay for that. Give me Pitolo to land a KO shot and he is my favorite underdog play of the week for that reason.

Fade of the week – Jake Matthews – $9,100

I have a hard time seeing Matthews pay off his price tag without a finish, so he is a fade for me with his +275 ITD line. He could have a grappling-heavy game plan where he scores well in a decision, but he only has 1 win with over 100 DK points on his fight log. I think he does win this fight, but I could see him scoring 70 or so points and that won’t cut it at $9.1k. I would rather target favorites with a better chance of an early finish so I will probably X Matthews out of my player pool, and he is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 184-169 for +231.42u (+$23,142) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

UFC Pros Picks Show – UFC Vegas 44: Aldo vs Font

mma, ufc, podcast, video, mike, mike mma picks, odds, betting, picks, bets, gambling, mikemmapicks, ufc on ESPN 8

MMAOB Fight Morning Quick Card Breakdown Show with MikesMMAPicks – UFC Vegas 44