If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 15-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Brendan Allen – $9,600
Allen is my cash game play of the week because he is the biggest favorite on the card, and he has a clear PTV with a high DK score with a grappling-heavy game plan. I think he can win all 3 rounds on the ground in this fight, and I think he is very in play for a submission as well with his +130 ITD line. Allen is my preferred play in all formats in this fight and if I can afford it, then I would like to be overweight to him in GPPs as well.
GPP play of the week – Azamat Murzakanov – $9,300
This is one of the better GPP fights to target with its -200 FDNGTD line. Murzakanov has a +100 ITD line and he is an early finisher, so he is more likely to win with a 1st round KO and that should put him on the optimal if he does. Murzakanov is making his UFC debut here with a perfect 10-0 record. 8 of those wins are finishes and they are all in round 1. I think he can get a 1st round KO here or get takedowns and finish the fight with a TKO on the ground. Either of those would score 100+ points and I think an early finish is his best chance at the win.
Underdog play of the week – Maki Pitolo – $7,600
Pitolo is my preferred play in this fight, and I like him in all formats. He is going to be one of my favorite underdogs to click on, but I expect him to be popular as well. The KO is what we are hoping for in order for him to have 100+ points here but as the underdog we don’t have to have 100+ and he could land a couple takedowns and score over 10x in a decision win. I hate the striking defense from Dusko though where he moved backwards with his chin in the air and his hands down and I think a guy like Pitolo can make him pay for that. Give me Pitolo to land a KO shot and he is my favorite underdog play of the week for that reason.
Fade of the week – Jake Matthews – $9,100
I have a hard time seeing Matthews pay off his price tag without a finish, so he is a fade for me with his +275 ITD line. He could have a grappling-heavy game plan where he scores well in a decision, but he only has 1 win with over 100 DK points on his fight log. I think he does win this fight, but I could see him scoring 70 or so points and that won’t cut it at $9.1k. I would rather target favorites with a better chance of an early finish so I will probably X Matthews out of my player pool, and he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 184-169 for +231.42u (+$23,142) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)