If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Max Holloway – $9,500
Holloway is the best play on the slate coming off his record breaking 209 DK point performance. The only issue is that he is the most expensive fighter, and he will be the most owned fighter on the slate. We just lock him into cash games and move on, but I don’t think we have to lock him into GPPs, and we shouldn’t expect a 200-point performance again. If Yair avoids the action, then that will take away from possible points from Holloway and if Max wins with 105 or so points, I don’t know that it will lock him onto the optimal when you are sharing those points with more than half the field. I think we can stack in cash games, or just avoid it in GPPs if you want to be contrarian and hope Max doesn’t put up another crazy score.
GPP play of the week – Cortney Casey – $8,800
Casey is my preferred play here. Jojua would score well in a win because it would come from grappling, but I am not very interested in here because I have a hard time seeing her have much success. Casey should put it on her on the feet and she can rack up volume and maybe get a TKO finish. She has never scored less than 84 DK points in a win, and I think she can get over 10x here at a decent ownership percentage. I think Casey is a fine play in all formats, but I like her more in GPPs because I think she gets a bit overlooked.
Underdog play of the week – Khaos Williams – $7,700
I plan to load up on this fight in GPPs and I like both sides. Either guy can end the fight with one big shot, and it could come in round 1 and end up on the optimal lineup. Williams might be one of my top underdog choices because I think he might have more one shot KO power and can end this fight early like we have seen him do in 2 of his 3 UFC wins. There aren’t many underdogs on this card that I like but Khaos has clear 100-point upside and that is something I always like to target in GPPs. I wouldn’t use him as a cash game option though and just punt with a cheaper underdog who is more likely to go the distance instead.
Fade of the week – Sean Woodson – $9,200
Woodson is a high-volume boxer, but he isn’t a guy that looks for takedowns and he doesn’t really have one-punch KO power, so it is hard to afford this $9.2k price tag. He has scored 82, 55 (loss), and 61 DK points in his 3 UFC fights and none of those will cut it at this price tag. He could get a finish and score well that way but if he goes to a decision, it will be hard for him to make the optimal lineup. He will mostly be a fade for me, and I might even X him out of my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 183-168 for +230.42u (+$23,042) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays).