If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 14-fight PPV card in Abu Dhabi. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Islam Makhachev – $9,600
Islam is my cash game play of the week because he is the biggest favorite on the card and his style leads to high DK scores. I expect a dominating ground performance here and he should score over 100 DK points if he does that. He is also live for a submission in any round and if he gets it late in round 1 then he has a big ceiling with the work he can do before that. I like Islam in all formats but there are a lot of heavy favorites that can score well so it’s just about who I can afford. I would probably want Islam in at least 1 of 3 lineups if only doing 3 entry max contests but I don’t think we have to force it.
GPP play of the week – Albert Duraev – $9,200
I like this fight a lot for GPPs. I think we get a grappling clinic from Duraev or a KO from Kopylov. High ceilings from both sides and I do think we get a finish in this fight (so does Vegas -175). Duraev is my preferred play though and he could score as much or more than the highest priced favorites with an early finish on the ground, but he isn’t as well-known of a name so maybe he goes a bit overlooked.
Underdog play of the week – Cory Sandhagen – $7,400
This is the title fight I want to target if I am choosing between the two. I like both sides of this fight and I don’t think we see a fight where the winner doesn’t score 10x+. Sandhagen is my preferred play though and likely a core play for me because he is 1 of 3 dogs I am picking to win, and I think he has the highest floor and ceiling of those 3 dogs. If Yan wins and scores over 100 DK points, then he still has to compete with these other big favorites. If Sandhagen wins, I think he is much more likely to end up on the $100k lineup with limited dogs to like on this card. I can’t wait for this fight, and I expect a banger!
Fade of the week – Amanda Ribas and Virna Jandiroba
The only thing I like about this fight is that it is the mid-range fight of the week and I have had about $8.2k left for the 6th spot in lineups that I have been trying to hand build. However, I don’t like this fight for DK because I think Ribas wins a striking decision and if she isn’t looking to grapple then I think she has one of the lowest ceilings of the favorites on this card. Jandiroba needs a submission to score well because I don’t think she can consistently wrestle here. I am not against X’ing this fight out of my player pool, and I might just do that.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 181-167 for +227.42u (+$22,742) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)