Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 40 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $333,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Lupita Godinez – $9,000

Godinez is cash game play of the week coming off her 127-point performance last weekend. That will be fresh in people’s memory though and that will make her chalkier in GPPs. I am fine with her in all formats still, but I don’t think she dominates this fight quite like that last one. I don’t love a lot of the favorites on this card though and I think she can do a lot of work on the ground here and score 100+ in a decision, so I might be overweight. I think she has a solid floor here though where a lot of the other favorites might not, so that is why I like her for cash games.

GPP play of the week – Jim Miller – $8,700

Jim Miller is not a guy I would want to be laying over -200 on at this point in his career. I do think he has a big grappling advantage here, but I don’t trust it after round 1. He has had 12 fights since 2017 and he lost 8 of them, with all 4 of the wins are 1st round submissions. That is his best path to victory in this fight as well and if that happens then he is going to score 100 or more points. He isn’t a guy I want to trust in cash and if he doesn’t get the submission then he won’t score enough for GPPs, but I do think that 1st round submission is very live here and that is why I want to get some GPP exposure.

Underdog play of the week – Norma Dumont – $7,800

Ladd vs Dumont will be a fight that I get into most of my lineups because they have 5 rounds to work with and either woman could have a lot of success in top control and maybe even finish the fight there. FDNGTD is -120 so there is a slight edge to it not going the distance, but even if it does go to a decision then these two are priced in the mid-range where I would still expect a 10x floor. I would just stack this fight in cash games and lock the win and 100+ points in. I think we can get away from it in some GPP lineups though and hope for a back and forth decision where the winner does only score 10x. Dumont is my preferred play though because she is easier to afford being the underdog. She could have success in top control or maybe even get a TKO on the feet. I think there is a 100-point ceiling for her, and she will be one of my favorite underdogs to click on.

Fade of the week – Andrei Arlovski and Carlos Felipe

This fight is expected to go to a decision at -160, and that makes me not like either side. Both sides have the ability to get a KO or land 100+ strikes, but I think the KO is needed to get 100-point upside and I am ok fading this fight hoping that it doesn’t happen. If this is a close decision fight, then I think the winner doesn’t even score 10x and I am not interested in that, even as the mid-range priced fight of the week. This is a full fade for me and if I was going to use either side, I would just want the side that is going to get less ownership of the two.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 179-167 for +222.42u (+$22,242) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


UFC Vegas 40 Fight Breakdown: Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont

Uber Tales of the Tape for UFC Vegas 40