If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 10-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Jack Shore – $9,100
Shore is the biggest favorite on the card and by far my favorite play on the slate. He will be the highest owned fighter in GPPs though so if you want to get different trying to chase the $100k then GPPs are the spot to fade him. He is an easy lock in cash games this week though. He should dominate this fight and he is the better fighter anywhere it goes. Sholinian is a decent wrestler/grappler, but Shore is levels above him and I don’t think Sholinian can hang with his cardio. Give me Shore to lock up a submission in this fight and score north of 100 DK points.
GPP play of the week – Tom Aspinall – $9,000
Aspinall will be highly owned as well, but he won’t be near Shore’s ownership. I think he is a decent GPP pivot because he has 60-second KO potential and those are slate breakers. If he lands a KO in the first minute of this fight, I think he will outscore Shore at a higher ownership. Maybe Shore just strikes for 15-minutes and wins that way with a low score. Any KO from Aspinall would likely outscore that and we save $100 as well as get the lower owned guy.
Underdog play of the week – Derek Brunson – $7,400
Brunson is my underdog play of the week and I would expect him to score over 10x in any win. If he wrestles, then he has a high ceiling, and it could even be no Brunson no cash. He is the guy I want leverage to, and I will be sure to go heavier than the field. For cash games, it is Brunson or pass for me as well. I don’t hate the stack, but I would rather go Brunson solo at his price and find other favorites I like more. If this fight goes 25-minutes, I think Brunson is the only one of the two who can dominate the fight and he is $1,400 cheaper.
Fade of the week – Alex Morono – $8,700
This is my least favorite fight for DK, and I might just full fade both guys and hope that it goes the distance. If this does go all 15-minutes, then I don’t think either guy scores well. I don’t expect much grappling in this fight, and I don’t see it being high paced enough to score well. Either guy could finish the fight and that will burn me if so. Vegas is giving it around a 60% chance to go to decision though and I would rather just target other fighters with higher and more likely ceilings. Since Morono is the more expensive of the two, he is going to be my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 174-163 for +219.87u (+$21,987) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)