Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 33 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Vegas back at the Apex. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Rafa Garcia – $9,500

My “underdog” of the week is a lock in cash games, but I wanted to give out a favorite I liked as well. Garcia is my most confident pick on the card, and he should be better than Gruetzemacher anywhere this fight goes. I think he can finish on the feet or the mat and score well. He could also rack up takedowns and top control time and possible still score well in a decision win. He is the “safest” win on the card this weekend though IMO and that is what I like to target in cash games. He is expensive but with the free square this week it makes it easier to afford.

GPP play of the week – Ronnie Lawrence – $8,600

I love the work rate from Lawrence and those takedowns and control time give him the highest ceiling on the card. He scored 135 DK points in a 3rd round finish in his last fight and I don’t see anybody else on the card matching that unless they get the KO in less than 1 minute. He had 8 takedowns in his UFC debut, which is huge, but he had 12 in his DWCS fight. There aren’t many guys who can keep up that pace for 3-rounds and I am going to like Lawrence in most of his matchups moving forward for that reason. I am not confident that he wins this fight but I don’t see anybody else on the card that can match his takedown rate and he is only $8.6k so he is easy to afford.

Underdog play of the week – Niklas Stolze – $7,000

This week we have a 2-1 favorite priced as a cheap underdog. Stolze was a 2-1 underdog when these salaries were released and now, he is a 2-1 favorite, but still price the same. He is the chalk of the week, but that line value is just too hard to pass up on. Especially in cash games. If you think he loses then don’t play him in GPPs because he will be very heavily owned. But still play him in cash games because it is rare when we get this type of value. I don’t care for the underdogs on this card, but if you want a real underdog, I will say Yahya is my main pick because of his early submission upside.

Fade of the week – Jinh Yu Frey – $7,800

I prefer to give a favorite as my fade of the week, but I can see a path to a high score for all favorites this week. Jinh Yu Frey is the only fighter who I don’t see having any high score upside. She is very low volume on the feet, and I would be surprised to see her get a finish there. She is also outmatched on the ground but even in her last fight when she dominated two rounds totaling over 10 minutes in control time, she only scored 72 DK points. She just doesn’t do enough for me to have any interest in here and she will be X’d out of my player pool in all formats.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 171-159 for +221.27u (+$22,127) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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