Big Marley’s UFC 263 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight PPV card in Arizona back in front of fans. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will also probably throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Leon Edwards – $9,500

Leon Edwards is the cash game play of the week because he is the biggest favorite on the card. According to the betting odds, he is 12% more likely to win than the 2nd highest betting favorite. We also get an extra two rounds to work with so that will help the ceiling on Edwards as well. He should be better than Nate Diaz everywhere other than grappling, but he is the better wrestler so he can dictate where this fight takes place. I think there are other fighters we can go to in GPPs for cheaper with higher ceilings, but Edwards is the clear cash game play because he is the safest win on the card.

GPP play of the week – Matt Frevola – $8,900

I am going to target this fight pretty heavily in GPPs, but more so the Frevola side. I think he has more ways to win, and he can score well in a decision if he wrestles as well. Frevola will be close to a core play though and more of a lock in cash games. He is the 3rd biggest betting favorite on the card with this new matchup, but he still has 6 fighters priced above him on DK. I don’t think the judges will be needed for this one, so I will be loading up, but I like Frevola and I think he should look to wrestle early and often. If he does, I think he gets a submission along the way.

Underdog play of the week – Brandon Moreno – $7,100

I think Moreno is the best underdog play on the card. This is a rematch from one of the best fights of 2020 and now we get to see it in front of fans. This was a draw the first time and Moreno still scored 80 points. Even in a loss Moreno can get over 10x here and that is hard not to like. If he won that fight, he would have scored 110-points and if that happens it will turn into no Moreno no cash. He gets a long training camp on this one and I think he can have a lot of the same success in this fight and maybe steal an extra round to get the win. He should be the highest owned underdog on the card so nothing sneaky here, but he is the dog of the week for all formats.

Fade of the week – Belal Muhammad – $9,000

I do like Muhammad to win this fight and I don’t hate him as a DK play, but he is my least favorite play in the $9k range. He has never knocked anybody out in the UFC so if he doesn’t get one here, I think he will struggle to have a high ceiling. He shouldn’t be looking for takedowns in this matchup because that is where the danger lies with Maia, so we are likely looking at striking points only with a possible win bonus for Muhammad here. I think the striking will be lower than his normal pace because he will have to worry about the takedown from Maia and I could see Muhammad winning with a score in the 60’s. That isn’t going to cut it at $9k and all of the other in the $9k range do have clear paths to 100+ points. That is why Belal is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 166-149 for +227.87u (+$22,787) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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