If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will also probably throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Manon Fiorot – $8,500
Fiorot is our free square this week with her new betting line. She is the biggest favorite on the card at -525 but we are still getting her at her $8.5k salary that was priced when she was facing Moroz. She should have a huge striking edge in this fight and if she can avoid takedowns, she should dominate and possibly get a TKO. Vegas has her lined -130 ITD so she does have a decent ceiling here with the finish, but in cash games she is a lock, and the ceiling doesn’t matter as much.
GPP play of the week – Montana de La Rosa – $9,300
De La Rosa is going to be one of my favorite plays on the slate. I think she can mop the floor with Lipski and get a finish in any round. She has 100+ upside here and I like her in all formats. I wouldn’t expect her to score well in a striking match, but I don’t think she struggles getting this fight to the ground, so I don’t expect a lot of striking. I think the early submission for MDLR is in play here, but I don’t think she even has to finish to end up on the optimal lineup in this matchup.
Underdog play of the week – Youssef Zalal – $7,400
Zalal is going to be my underdog play of the week because he is an underdog I am picking to win. If he does win, it should come with grappling success, and I would think he scores 10x or more. Woodson strikes at a very high pace and that should up the output from Zalal on the feet as well, but it is the ground game that makes me want to roster him. I think Zalal has a decent floor, so I like him in cash games as well. Woodson is a solid striker though and he will be the one striking at a higher pace, so if Zalal can’t get takedowns then he probably loses the fight.
Fade of the week – Tom Breese – $9,200
Tom Breese can easily get 100+ points here with a 1st round KO. I do think he is the better fighter here and he can get a finish on the feet or the ground. I just think he is relying on the finish at this $9.2k price tag and I would rather target most of these other $9k fighters instead. I still have DFS PTSD from Breese pulling out after lock and I think that is always in play with his anxiety, so that is another reason I am not wanting to target him in my lineups. I will get some exposure to Breese with my set of 150 lineups, but he will be a full fade in all of my hand built lineups this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 163-148 for +225.74u (+$22,574) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
