Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 26 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back in Vegas! DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will be throwing 150 in the mini max to work on my MME game. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Donald Cerrone – $8,400

I like Cerrone as a cash game play this week because I think he has a pretty safe floor and I also think this is a good matchup for him to win. We are getting him lined at -190 here on the betting line but he is only $8.4k on DK. That is cheaper than Geoff Neal at $9k with the same betting line, and it is a better betting line than Ribas and Gillespie who are also priced higher than him. I always like line value for cash games and Cowboy is my cash game play this week for that reason. I

GPP play of the week – Gregor Gillespie – $8,900

Gillespie is going to be one of my favorite GPP plays on pretty much any slate he is on. He is a great wrestler, and he can chain wrestle for 3 rounds. I don’t think he can finish Ferreira here, but I think he can get a lot of takedowns and control time while he racks up ground strikes. Ferreira is dangerous on the ground though, so he is live for a submission and Gillespie can’t make any mistakes on the mat. I do worry that Gillespie just looks to make this a striking match and with his ownership and price tag, I would think it would be better to go underweight if that is what we think happens. I will still be getting a good amount of Gregor though because I think he can rack up the takedowns and if he stays out of a submission then he should score well in a win. He has never scored less than 100 DK points in a win so far and he scored a massive 146 the last time he got his hand raised. This is by far his toughest test yet on the ground though, so I am pumped for this fight.

Underdog play of the week – Phil Hawes – $7,900

Hawes has one of the higher ceilings on the card so he will be one of my favorite underdogs to target. He has one punch power and even his leg kicks look like they could end a fight. He is also a great wrestler and can rack up takedowns and top control time. His gas tank is his big issue and the longer this fight goes the more he will slow down. The more he slows down the more of a chance Daukaus will have at a finish. I want to be overweight on Hawes because I think he ends this fight. If he does get a finish, then we will probably need him to have any shot at 1st place. There are a few solid underdogs to target on this card, but Hawes is my favorite by a decent margin.

Fade of the week – Ryan Benoit – $8,600

This might be a full fade fight for me on DraftKings. I don’t see this being a high-paced fight and Vegas has this as a -165 to go the distance. I don’t see either guy ending up on the optimal in a decision win. Either guy could get a KO and score well, but I would rather take my shots on other fights and I don’t want to invest in these guys. Benoit is going to be the fade of the week though because he is my least favorite betting favorite on the card, and I don’t see a high ceiling from him unless he can land a KO shot. At $8.6k I want at least 86 DK points from Benoit, and he has only scored more than that 1 time in his career. I could see a 50-point Benoit win here and with that score you might as well take a loss. That is why he is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 161-141 for +236.07u (+$23,607) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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