If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Tony Gravely – $9,400
Gravely is going to be somebody I likely go overweight on for this slate, and he is my favorite cash game play to pay up for. He is the fighter I am most confident in winning this weekend and that is why I like him as my cash game pay up. He is the most expensive fighter on the card, but I think he has a good chance at 100+ here and he did score 110 in a decision win in his last fight. He is averaging 6 takedowns in his 2 UFC fights and that is his best path to victory here as well. I think he can also get a 1st round KO where he can score very highly, and I don’t see him winning this fight with a poor DK score.
GPP play of the week – Abdul Razak Alhassan – $9,300
Alhassan is going to be a core GPP play for me, and I expect a 1st round KO. That could even come in the first minute and break the slate. Alhassan wins in Round 1 is lined at +140 and if he gets it, he will probably be on the optimal lineup. He will be very chalky, but I will have him in more than half of my lineups. I like Alhassan more as a GPP play because I am not confident his chin holds up after his last brutal KO loss so I would rather pay for the “safety” of Gravely in cash games, but I love the ceiling for Alhassan in this matchup.
Underdog play of the week – Juan Espino – $7,400
This is the closest thing to an all-in fight for me on the card. Espino is my preferred play because he is the underdog, and he will probably be my highest owned underdog on the card. If Espino wins, I think he has a good chance of ending on the optimal lineup. I also think the same for Romanov, but it will be harder with his $8.8k salary. Either way, I want this fight in probably 85% or more of my total lineups and Espino will be the guy I look to in SE and 3-entry max. Vegas gives this fight over a 70% chance of finishing ITD, so I think that is a good floor number for our total lineups, I just want to be over that personally and this is my favorite DK fight on the card by a large margin.
Fade of the week – Austin Hubbard – $8,900
This price tag is going to take me completely off Hubbard this weekend. I would rather pay up for any of the $9k fighters and if I can’t afford them then I would rather pay less for other favorites. Hubbard is taking on a newcomer on short notice so maybe he can get a finish and score highly. I just think he has to get that finish in order to score highly and that is not something I want to bank on. I don’t see a lot of takedowns coming from him in this matchup and he isn’t a high-volume striker who can score 100+ in a decision win. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 159-138 for +239.62u (+$23,962) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)