Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 20 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 15-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Magomed Ankalaev – $9,300

Ankalaev is my cash game play of the week because he is the fighter, I am most confident in winning. He does have a lower floor than I usually like for cash games because if he loses it is likely he got finished. However, I am willing to take that risk and Gane has the same risk and an even lower floor IMO. I also am not confident Ankalaev scores 100+ here so maybe I want to target other guys in GPPs, but I still want some investment in Ankalaev because I like him in this matchup, and I think he is a future title contender.

GPP play of the week – Ronnie Lawrence – $8,600

Lawrence is my preferred play here and he can break the slate if he has a performance like his one on DWCS. He landed those 12 takedowns and controlled the fight for over 10 minutes. That is DK gold. That is his best path to victory here IMO because I would take Cachero in a striking match. I do think this fight is close on the feet, but I think if Lawrence has the same game plan, he used in his last fight then he can win this fight and minimize damage. Cachero was taken down 5 times in his UFC debut so I do expect to see multiple takedowns from Lawrence and his ceiling is what I am chasing in GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Kevin Croom – $7,400

Croom is going to be one of my favorite GPP underdogs on the card. If he wins, he should score well, and it could come in round 1. I want to be overweight to him this week and I am also not against him in cash games just because he is a dog I am picking to win. I am not confident in him getting the win, but I am pretty confident he scores well if he does get the win and that is what we want to target on DraftKings.

Fade of the week – Angela Hill – $9,200

There wasn’t a clear fade of the week on this card, but Hill is the favorite that I don’t see me being able to afford at $9.2k. She can put up nice volume on the feet in striking matches and pay that salary off, but this won’t be a 15-minute striking battle. Yoder will be looking to get this fight to the mat and when they are clinched up against the cage or Yoder gets takedowns, Hill won’t be scoring much during those times. She could also lose the fight if she spends too much time in those positions. I do think Hill wins this fight, but I think she probably scores closer to 70 DK points than the 100+ we would need at her salary. That is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 155-133 for +239.06u (+$23,906) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

MMAOB’s Nick Kalikas talks UFC Vegas 20 on ESPN’s new MMA betting show

UFC Vegas 20: Montana De La Rosa vs Mayra Buena Silva Bet by AJ’s Bets