Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 19 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 15-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Curtis Blaydes – $9,400

Blaydes is the biggest favorite on the card and easily my most confident pick on the card. The only way he loses this fight is by getting knocked out and I will take my chances on that not happening. Blaydes landed 14 takedowns in his last fight and Lewis does not have good takedown defense. This is the perfect style for DraftKings, and I think Blaydes mauls Lewis until the fight gets stopped. I like him in all formats, but he is an absolute lock in cash games for me and I wouldn’t even stack, just go Blaydes solo.

GPP play of the week – Chris Daukaus – $8,600

Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently lined at -565 which is saying Vegas thinks there is an 85% chance we won’t need the judges. I do think this could be a sweat early in the fight if Oleinik can get takedowns, but the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Daukaus. He is going to be the much faster and more technical striker here and I think he gets a knockout at some point in the fight. He averages 134.2 DK points in his 2 UFC fights and if he gets there again he will be on the $100k lineup. I like this fight as a whole for GPPs but Daukaus is my pick and I do like that $8.6k price tag.

Underdog play of the week – Darrick Minner – $7,400

Minner would be a top fighter if fights were only 1 round. 21 of his 25 wins are 1st round finishes. 20 of them are submissions. He comes out of the gates hot and is dangerous early. Minner is going to be one of the better underdog plays on the card just because of his ceiling in a win. If he wins, he will score more than 10x and there is a better chance he scores over 95 because it should be early. If he doesn’t get the early finish, there is a good chance he gets finished himself so this would be more of a GPP underdog play.

Fade of the week – Ketlen Vieira – $9,300

Vieira is going to be priced out of my lineups at $9.3k, so she is a full fade for me. She has 5 UFC wins and she has never even scored 90 DK points, so I just can’t get to her at that price. For $100 more I can get Blaydes who has 150-point upside, and I don’t think I can fit them both. I do see Vieira being better anywhere this fight goes and I am picking her to win this fight. I just don’t think she scores enough to land on the optimal lineup and that is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 155-132 for +241.76u (+$24,176) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

BigMarley3