Big Marley’s UFC 258 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Belal Muhammad – $9,200

Belal is my cash game play of the week because he is the biggest favorite on the card, and he has the lowest chance of being finished in the $9k range. Other guys in that range have higher ceilings so I would rather go to those guys in GPPs, but I think Belal is a safe play and he can score decent as well. He should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and the new scoring system helps his scoring with the control time and ground strikes he can rack up. He isn’t a lock in cash games, but I like the “safe” feeling that comes with him this weekend where I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these other $9k fighters were finished.

GPP play of the week – Kamaru Usman – $9,000

Usman is just the overall play of the week. I could have put him as the cash game play, but Usman has a ceiling that nobody else on this card can touch. He has scored 130 or more DK points in his last 4 fights with the new scoring system. He has the potential to rack up more control time than everybody else on this card even has fight time. He controlled 3 of his last 4 fights for over 17.5 minutes and he is the best wrestler in the UFC IMO. His average score on DraftKings (125.3) looks like it isn’t even in the ballpark for everyone else on this card so Usman is a core play for me, and he will be the start of most of my lineups this weekend. He should be the highest owned fighter on the card but that is chalk I will gladly eat.

Underdog play of the week – Maycee Barber – $7,900

Barber is a solid striker but her real edge in this fight is on the mat. She is a high-paced fighter and if she wins, I think she will be scoring over 10x. I like her in all formats for that reason, but I do expect her to be one of the more popular underdogs on the card. In her 3 UFC wins she scored 105, 93, and 111 with this new scoring system. I think she can get there again in a win, but this is her first fight where I don’t think she has a striking advantage. She can score well in a striking based win, but I think she will be looking to land takedowns and that is where she will score the highest.

Fade of the week – Kelvin Gastelum – $8,800

Gastelum won’t make his way into any of my lineups this weekend. For him to score high he will need a finish. He isn’t a high paced striker, and he doesn’t look to wrestle often either. We are likely going to be relying on striking points and a possible win bonus and I don’t see him even scoring 10x. I think this will be a back-and-forth striking match where neither guy has a high ceiling without a finish. Gastelum’s price is what makes him my fade of the week though because I think everyone else in his range has a better chance of scoring 10x+ their salary.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 154-132 for +238.40u (+$23,840) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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