If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Daniel Rodriguez – $9,100
Rodriguez would be the first guy in my cash lineup this week because he seems like a safer pick with his -330 betting line and he has a high floor. With the pressure and volume he throws on the feet, averaging 8.46 significant strikes landed per minute, I don’t see him putting up a dud score in a win and I do think he is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. He has scored over 100 DK points in all 3 of his UFC fights so far so the ceiling is there as well, and he doesn’t even need a finish to get 10x or more which I always like.
GPP play of the week – Louis Cosce – $9,300
Cosce is my GPP play of the week and I like him in cash games as well. He should be the chalk of the card because he is a -485 favorite with a -225 ITD line and a +100 wins in round 1 line. He has never been out of the first round and he does go for the kill early in all of his fights. If I had to pick one fighter who I feel is the safest to hit 100-points in a win, it would be Cosce. Even if he ends up being the highest owned fighter on the card, I would rather take an all-in approach rather than fading the chalk.
Underdog play of the week – Alex Perez – $7,200
Perez is my underdog play of the week because there is no way Perez wins this fight and doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup at $7.2k. At $9k for Figueiredo it is a different story. If he doesn’t get the finish in the 1st or 2nd round he might not end up on the optimal lineup if he wins. He doesn’t strike or grapple at a high enough pace to score well without a big win bonus or knockdowns, which are hard to predict. This is still close to an all-in fight for me and I do like Figueiredo because he can finish on the feet or the ground. I just could see him scoring less than 10x in a win so that will keep me underweight on him personally and since I do think Perez has a shot in this matchup, he will be one of my favorite underdogs to click on in all formats.
Fade of the week – Antonina Shevchenko – $8,400
Even if I make 150 lineups this week, Antonina won’t end up on any of my lineups. I have interest in basically every favorite on DraftKings other than Antonina and at $8.4k it makes it easy for me to X her out of my lineups. I don’t see a big edge for her on the feet here and she has a clear weakness of being put on her back and having nothing to offer. She has two UFC wins and she scored 76 and 81 in those fights. If she has that sort of success here and scores the same, that won’t win us $150k at her $8.4k salary and that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 148-125 for +240.66u (+$24,066) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)