Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 14 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

Rafael Dos Anjos, 29-13, 36yo takes on Paul Felder, 17-5, also 36yo, at UFC Vegas 14. This is a fascinating matchup, as Paul Felder returns on short notice vs former UFC lightweight Champion, RDA, at 155lbs. Felder, who contemplated retirement after a split decision loss to Dan Hooker back in February, is massive for the lightweight division. RDA has been in camp for a fight with Islam Makhachev that recently fell through, and he’s been working on a cut back to lightweight where he once saw significant success. Dos Anjos had fought a murderer’s row of grapplers at 170lbs, and now gets his chance to be the superior grappler in this matchup. I expect Dos Anjos to be the sharper fighter all around with a deeper gas tank. We can’t count Paul Felder out, as he’s tough as nails, is a dangerous striker, and has heart for days, though this is a tough spot all things considered. I wanted to get a look at these fighters on the scales before pulling the trigger. This fight is a go. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line widen come fight time. The pick is Rafael Dos Anjos. I’m playing RDA for 1.5U at -190.

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Rafael Dos Anjos – $8,800 + Paul Felder – $7,400 Stack

This is going to be one of the best fights to target on DraftKings because it is still a 5-round fight. Either guy could finish and score well with that. I think RDA is more live for a submission or a decision win with takedowns and advances along with all his significant strikes. And I think Felder is more live to win with a knockout. I do think either guy can and will score more than 10x in a decision win as well, so this will be one of my favorite fights to click and Felder is my preferred side of the two if I had to choose. I would just stack this fight in cash games and lock in the 100+ and winner because I wouldn’t feel confident using either side solo in a contest where I only need to beat around half of the field. I think this could be FOTN and score 140+ DK points as a whole so this is an easy stack for me this week.

GPP play of the week – Abdul Razak Alhassan – $9,100

This is going to be close to an all-in fight with the -650 FDGTD line. Either guy could get a 1st round KO and under 1.5 rounds is juiced at -170 right now. Alhassan is going to be one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate and I do expect an early knockout from him. If MMEing then I do want Williams in some lineups as well as a hedge to all the Alhassan exposure and he could break the slate again with another 1st round KO. Alhassan with his -180 ITD line might end up being my highest owned fighter on the card and I am hoping him burning a lot of people in his last fight will slightly decrease his ownership in this matchup.

Underdog play of the week – Brendan Allen – $7,900

Allen is my “underdog” play of the week because he will be the one looking to grapple in this fight and if he wins he probably scores well on DraftKings. I will look to be overweight on Allen on DraftKings this week because he is under $8k and now the betting line has shifted to him as a slight favorite. Strickland will probably be someone I look to match the fields ownership on because he could win a decision and score less than 80. I don’t see Allen not getting 10x+ in a win though so he will be one of my favorite underdogs of the week in all formats.

Fade of the week – Kay Hansen – $9,200

Hansen is priced too high for me at $9.2k and she will be my fade of the week because I don’t see how she scores 10x unless she gets the 1st round submission. She is a good grappler, and she could get that early sub and burn me here. I just don’t think she is a very good wrestler and I don’t trust she can get the fight to the mat consistently and if she doesn’t get a finish I would be very surprise to see her get near 10x that salary. I would rather pay up for another heavy favorite that is more likely to get an early knockout, so Hansen won’t end up in any of my lineups and that makes her my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 147-124 for +240.71u (+$24,071) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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