Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 12 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Kevin Holland – $8,200

This is an absolute lock button play for cash games. You start your cash game lineup with Holland and move on from there. Holland was originally supposed to face Muradov and that was going to be a close fight, which is why Holland is priced at $8,200. Muradov had to pull out and Charlie Ontiveros is stepping in on short notice to make his UFC debut here. Now Holland is -675 on the betting line and FDGTD is -385. If you think Holland loses or doesn’t score well then just fade him or go underweight to him in your GPP lineups. We can’t fade this value in cash games though and I do think Holland is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup and the only way he loses is most likely by knockout.

GPP play of the week – Sean Strickland – $9,100

I like all the $9k plays this week so any of them are solid GPP plays this week, we just can’t afford them all so we have to pick and choose the ones we want in each lineup. Strickland is going to be one of my favorite options because he has a huge edge on the ground if he can get this fight there, and I think he is the better striker who will be throwing more volume as well. Strickland doesn’t even need a finish to score highly in this fight, but he is live for a sub and he can rack up multiple takedowns and advances as well. Strickland has wins scoring 114, 94, 108, 93, and 116. Don’t let this high price tag scare you off Strickland this week, he is one of my favorite options on the card.

Underdog play of the week – Andre Fili – $7,700

Bryce Mitchell has looked amazing in his last two fights and he is one of the most hyped up prospects right now because of those two performances. That hype should make him somewhat popular on DraftKings this week and this is by his toughest fight to date. Fili has been around for a long time and he has fought top competition. He is the much better striker in this matchup, and I think he is the better wrestler as well, so he might be able to keep this fight standing and put it to Mitchell on the feet. I do think Mitchell can have a lot of success if he can get this fight to the mat, I am just not confident he can do that so I think Fili makes for a good underdog play this week and if he wins I think he would score 10x or more with his $7.7k salary.

Fade of the week – Miles Johns – $8,400

I like too many other favorite to get any Johns exposure in my lineups this week. For him to pay off that $8.4k price tag and end up on the optimal lineup, he needs either a knockout or a wrestling-heavy game plan where he lands multiple takedowns each round. I just don’t see that happening and he doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to score well in a striking match that goes to decision. Johns might be the only favorite that I get zero exposure to this week and that is why he is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 146-123 for +238.53u (+$23,853) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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