If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Stephanie Egger – $7,200
I like Egger as a cash game play this week because she is cheap, and she should see 3-rounds of action. Fight Goes To Decision is currently -225 and if Egger gets 3-rounds of scoring I think that should be enough even if she losses as long as we hit on 4 of our 5 other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash games, we only need to beat half of the field. If Egger puts up ~30 DK points at $7.2k then it allowed us to pay up for expensive favorites that we do like, and she could also win this fight and help us sweep our cash games. The other pay down options on this slate have much lower floors so that is why I think Egger makes for a good cash game option this Saturday.
GPP play of the week – Tom Breese – $9,100
Breese is my GPP play of the week on DraftKings because he should go under owned. He is hard to trust with his anxiety issues and there is a chance he pulls out of this fight after lock. That makes him a GPP only play but it also keeps his ownership down and could make him a good play that helps somebody win that $100k. I think Breese is better than Bhullar everywhere in this matchup and I could see him finishing him on the feet or the ground. I like most plays above $8.5k this week, but Breese is that one that probably gets overlooked in this spot and that makes me want to get some GPP exposure to him.
Underdog play of the week – Chris Daukaus – $7,000
This is going to be a must-target fight in GPPs with the -510 FDGTD line. Under 1.5 rounds is even juiced at -150 so this is a good fight on both sides for GPPs and it will be in more than half my lineups for sure. Daukaus is my preferred play though because he is so cheap, and he can have success on the feet in this fight. He might even have some grappling chops as well; I just don’t see him having the edge there. GPP only, but Daukaus is a guy I want to be above the field on and if he does win this fight there is a good chance he scores well and ends up on the optimal lineup. His current betting line is +220 but his ITD line is only +255, so if he does get the win it most likely comes inside the distance and that is why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week – Tracy Cortez $9,000
I used Egger in my cash game play of the week because I like her floor this week, and I don’t like Cortez because I don’t see much of a ceiling for her. At $9k, she is likely going to be priced out of all my lineups. The ground game is where she would be putting herself in the most danger and she can cruise to a victory on the feet here. If that happens, she won’t score well with just significant strike points and the decision win bonus. She is going to need to rack up takedowns to score 100+ in this spot, or get a finish, and I don’t want to invest much in those outcomes when I like the other $9k options more. Cortez is my fade of the week and she won’t make it onto any of my lineups this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 143-115 for +245.33u (+$24,563) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)